2026 tech stock predictions, is the market poised for a reset?

0:00 spk_0

Welcome to Morning Brief presented by Robinhood, the home to commission-free trading. I’m Yahoo Finds executive editor Brian Sasi. Let’s fire up three things I think you need to know today. First up, if you’re feeling the holiday sleepies, I say it’s time to wake up because we are witnessing a market in rally mode into the new year, just not happening now. More on that in a second.I’m really locked in on the tech names like Nvidia, which has quietly tacked on a 5% gain in the past 5 sessions. Even Tesla is getting in on the action. One chart to watch carefully, a comparison between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. The former has outperformed the latter by 2 times in the last five trading sessions.Number 2, not to be outdone is the FOMO rally playing out across the commodities complex. Copper has hit a fresh all-time high above $12,000 a ton as severe mine outages and trade war realities have the metal on course for its biggest annual gain since 2009. And for all you Costco gold bar hoarders out there, and I know you’re out there and I know you’re watching this, gold prices are also hitting a new record today.Through $4500 an ounce. And lastly, Novo Nordisk getting a shot of love on the Yahoo Finance trending tickers page. This is US regulators approved the first GLP-1 weight loss pill, a tablet formalization of Novo’s Ozempic and go, but before Novo investors foam even more at the mouth with excitement, reminder that Eli Lilly is expected to introduce a new weight loss pill possibly within weeks.All right, for those wide awake checking in on the budding Santa Claus rally, here’s a quick snapshot of the markets. You’re seeing the markets under a little bit of pressure. That pressure intensified a bit after that GDP for the third quarter hit this morning, up 4.3%. Initial thoughts perhaps that strong.Number might mean less Fed rate cuts coming out of the block next year. I will remind you though, 4th quarter GDP is likely to slow considerably before that because of that government shutdown, but a big number here nonetheless in what will be a slow data week indeed.Investing in AI has been a moneymaker again this year, with big tech stocks like Nvidia and Alphabet helping to drive the Nasdaq up more than 20% in 2025. But there are growing concerns that AI stocks could be overvalued heading into 2026, and perhaps the complex deserves to be hammered.Dan Ives is Wedbush Securities managing director and global head of tech research. Dan loves tech. Dan, good to see you. Don’t know where to start, so I’m gonna start on Nvidia. Uh, I mentioned at the top, we’re seeing, uh, the Bulls return to Nvidia, uh, not in a big way, but I would say in a nice way. What’s the play

2:39 spk_1

there?Look, I think the reality is China’s going to reopen, you know, for Nvidia, and I think that’s something that wasn’t necessarily factored in fully. I think investors are realizing it’s a big change in the Beltway. And look, Oz, the reality is there’s one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and, and that’s Nvidia. And I think as it plays out, numbers are significantly underestimated. I think 15 to 20% at a minimum going in 2026.Put that together, I think we’re looking at a $250 stock in a base case to end 2026.

3:14 spk_0

Another case for Nvidia, Dan, is, is it this, and you can tell me if I’m wrong, you know, you and I have known each other for many, many years. It’s OK. We have a debate here, that Nvidia has less exposure to OpenAI than its rival AMD because AMD might be partially owned by OpenAI in 10 years.

3:33 spk_1

Look, right now, the reality is, is that, you know, associated with open AI is a bad thing. Now I disagree with that. Just, I mean, you’ve talked about it, but no doubt from a trade perspective, Nvidia, you know, they’re obviously like they’re not wed to an open AI, and I think to some extent.You know, I think you’ve talked about it. When you look at a divergence of those related to OpenAI, you know, whether it’s Oracle or Microsoft or whatever it may be, you know, those stocks are obviously under more pressure. But look, my view is, as we go into 2026, investors are underestimating the scale and scope of the.AI revolution for Nvidia, for OpenAI, for Oracle, which I think is table pounded here despite, you know, obviously a lot of the negative sentiment for Palantir and others, because look, only 3% of companies in the US have gone down the AI path, and for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.

4:30 spk_0

Dan, later on in the show, I’m gonna have uh Marianne Bartels on, uh, really excited to talk to her. She’s making the case that tech might see, her words, not mine, a reset year next year, but then go off on a very strong bull run looking out over the next decade. If there is a reset in tech, let’s just say the first quarter next year. What, what triggers that?

4:48 spk_1

Yeah, look, and she, and she obviously always has great thoughts.I think my view is, look, the white knuckle moments, whether they’re resets or whatever you may call it, like they create the opportunities. I mean, go back to, you know, we’ll be at CES again, go back to a year ago, right? I mean, Jensen comes out, the black leather jacket, I think even maybe potentially diamond studs in the back or whatever.You know, talk about Quantum.

5:11 spk_0

I think that’s your jacket,Dan. I think

5:13 spk_1

that’s your, I, I think that could be your jacket dollars, but, but, but, we’re getting off topic. But the point is, look, the reality is negative on Quantum. Remember the sentiment going to the deep seek moment in January. You’re gonna have these moments, but my view is like you’re in year 3 of an 8 to 10 year buildout of the AI revolution.

5:33 spk_0

Outside of, uh, Nvidia. I love what some of the thoughts you’ve been putting on your X account, Dan, on, uh, Tesla.Now, I, I’m sure you saw the photos of Waymos getting stuck in San Francisco with the power outage, and my first thought was, this is everything that could go wrong with the Tesla robotaxi.

5:50 spk_1

Look, my view is 2026 is going to be probably the most important year, I’d say maybe in its history for Musk and Tesla, because look, the autonomous chapter now comes to Tesla, 30 cities where we see robotaxis, you know, ultimately in the United States. Are there going to be issues? Are there going to be speed bumps? Could there be?Dele here and there, yeah, I mean, obviously you saw the blackout in terms of Waymo in San Francisco, but look, I think next 3 to 4 years, 20% of vehicles are going to be autonomous, and I think that ultimately is where it’s heading. And that’s why I think when it comes to physical AI plays, the best physical AI plays in the world are Nvidia and Tesla.

6:33 spk_0

How much value, Dan, are you assigning to Tesla’s robotics initiatives?

6:40 spk_1

A trillion is what conservatively we view. I mean, look, if you, if you own Tesla here, you’re not owning it for what deliveries look like on Jan 2nd, right? I mean, you’re owning it for autonomous robotaxis, and we talk about bulk case 3 trillion, base case 2 trillion. Now look, if I showed you a year ago where numbers were going to go for Tesla.This year, you’re like, oh, the stocks, 200, 250 bucks. The reality is that investors are looking through deliveries and near term numbers to understand what the autonomous chapter is gonna ultimately bring, because I could argue numbers could be up 4, 5x.When you look out over the next 456 years, I think that’s the way to, to view a namelike Tesla.

7:29 spk_0

Dan, uh, before I want to get to pound here, but why I love you and many reasons why, uh, as you know, but one is you covered damn near, you, you covered damn near everything. So if Tesla’s gonna dominate in robotaxis, what does that mean to a General Motors and a Ford who are not really playing in this industry at all?

7:45 spk_1

Well, first of all, to lump GM and Ford together, I disagree. I mean, I think, I think what Mary’s done and Paul at GM has been Hall of Fame moment for them, right? And the stock, I think, speaks for that. They’ve been able to navigate supply chain issues, pull back on EVs, but I believe like GM is in a much better situation.and again, they’re gonna kind of pick their spots. Ford obviously much more back against the wall, and we see that in terms of what far we’re trying to navigate. Look, I think what it means for the GM and Ford’s, they gotta pick their spots, they gotta figure out how they’re gonna go down the autonomous chapter. Do they eventually partner at one point with Tesla? I don’t think that that’s out of the realm, given where we see the autonomous world heading.

8:31 spk_0

And Dan making some good points here. General Motors shares up about 56% year to date. Ford about 35% year to date. They’re just coming off a big, almost $20 billion charge uh to their EV business. Dan, so on Palantir, I know you’re watching this name. Is this, is Palantir double next year? And if so, why?

8:47 spk_1

I think it’s a $1 trillion mark cap next 2 to 3 years. I, I think investors are underestimating how disruptive Palantir is on the enterprise. We’ve justWe, they, they’ve, they’ve just started to tap into that market on the commercial business. So, now, is it’s super expensive, of course. But if you look at the next 345 years, like I view it as like, it’s gonna be the next Salesforce, the next Oracle, however you want to think about it in terms of, on the software side, and I think Carp’s playing a different game. He’s playing chess.You know, as a mastered wizard, and I think a lot of others are playing, uh, you know, checkers at the kids’ table.

9:25 spk_0

I’m, I’m loving this comparison or this duel that erupted in the fall, Dan, between Mark Benioff and Alex Carp, kind of taking shots at, you know, the other out there in media and, and X, I believe. If, if Palantir is a winner, then is Salesforce a loser?

9:40 spk_1

Look, I don’t think Salesforce is a loser because I believe Benioff’s going to be able to turn this around. Agent 4 needs to be successful. They’re probably going to have to do more acquisitions, but no doubt, like, look, Benioff, top of the mountain, the Hall of Fame, Mount Rushmore CEO. But for the first time in many, many years, like there’s, I won’t call it a code red, but like there’s a threat to the business model, and I think they have to adjust. And that’s why when you look at Palantir with no direct salespeople doing what they’re doing.I think that it’s a shot across the bow, not just at Salesforce, at ServiceNow with the traditionalsoftware.

10:17 spk_0

Dan, hit me with a tech stock you hate.

10:20 spk_1

Look, Adobe is the one, I wouldn’t say hate, but Adobe’s the one that’s probably under the most pressure, given you think about AI, what it’s doing to their business model, what they need to prove, massive success story obviously over the decades. But I think when you think about AI as a threat to a business model, I think Adobe, like, look, they’re going through like a turbulent little white knuckle period here.

10:46 spk_0

Yeah, why do we need, we’re not gonna be printing out PDFs anymore, right, Dan?

10:50 spk_1

Look, they gotta change, they, they’re gonna have to adjust and change part of their business model. But I mean, look, it’s no different than Salesforce, no different than Workday. I mean, these are companies like you either pivot.Or stay on the treadmill at 2.0 speed.

11:05 spk_0

Lastly, Dan, lastly, uh, this may be the last time I see you this year, and if it is, you’ve been traveling around the world all year, meeting with investors, covering this tech AI revolution. What has surprised you? Is there one thing that has absolutely blown you away this year?

11:21 spk_1

Look, I think the thing that’s maybe surprised me is just what I ultimately view as the enterprise adoption and how accelerated it’s been. Go back to capbacks a year ago, right? Concerns about AI, big tech capbacks.And it’s ultimately 50% higher than ultimately it was at the beginning of the year. I think that’s ultimately the thing that it’s that acceleration that surprised me the most. And maybe the other surprise, you know, obviously is, uh, you know, I was hoping for more from the Giants and Penn State, but what are you gonna do? I mean, we, we got another year nextyear.

11:57 spk_0

There’s not much you can do, Dan. You know, sometimes we’re just at the whims of bad decisions by our sports teams. Uh, Dan Ives, happy holidays to you, my friend. You too. Thanks for making time, man. Appreciate you.Coming up on Morning Marie, I fry off a host of hot tickers lighting up Yahoo Finance. Get your note uh notepad out. I’ll be right back.Welcome back to Morning Brief presented by Robin Hood. As promised, here are my trending tickers. You need to know something on right this minute. First up, Novo Nordisk and the renewed GLP1 trade. Stock is ripping ahead of the open as the company received the FDA’s approval for the first weight loss pill. The new.Medication is a tablet formulation of both its popular Wagovi and Ozempic drugs. Novo Nordisk will start selling the pill in January at $149 a month for the starting dose. The news is weighing on shares of Eli Lilly though, which is waiting on approval for its weight loss pill that could come in just a few weeks.Next, the quantum stocks are top of mind for this guy. D wave sparking a rally in the space on Monday with a 20% surge. Said rally is cooling a bit Tuesday though. The company announcing it will be presenting at the Consumer Electronics Show or CES next month. The read-through D Wave may show something off in quantum that may finally make it some money. The company has lost more than $312 million this year. That’s a lot of money.Finally, DJT Trump Media shares coming back down to reality a little bit after the massive rally on the company’s unexpected pivot to nuclear fusion. Last week, the company announced an all-stock deal with Tay Technologies valued at $6 billion. And like quantum, nuclear fusion is still a ways from.Becoming a commercial reality and investors are starting to realize that. DJT is a company that also bet big on crypto, which hasn’t necessarily worked out so far. The company reported a nearly $55 million net loss in the third quarter, and the stock is down 57% so far this year.All right, making money in tech stocks has been relatively easy this year. All you’ve had to do is find companies with good cash flow and strong inroads into the AI revolution, and boom, there were the gains. But nothing in markets go up in a straight line, including AI stocks. In fact, my next guest thinks 2026 could be a reset year for tech stocks. Marianne Bartels is Sanctuary Wealth’s chief investment strategist. Marianne, always a treat to get some time with you here. Take us through your thesis on tech stocks.

14:26 spk_2

So they’re still the leaders of the market. I still see them leading, particularly the semis. The semis really are the true leader of the secularable market. But in our work, what we’re seeing is that they may take a pause, or the word that we’re using is a reset.Now, if you look, for example, at an Nvidia, it made a new high, but it was not able to hold its new high. It’s been in a trading range for months. Now, either we’re going to stay in that trading range or we’ll get a pullback. And even if you look at the semiconductor ETFs, they’re trading the same. Um, so, I think the leadership of tech takes a break. You know, I do think we’re going to get a pullback, a correction.Um, but I’d be a buyer on the correction. Again, I still see them as leaders, but that’s going to lead to volatility in 2026. And it’s the midterm election year, and it’s very normal to have volatility, um, in a midterm year. So, I’m just telling our clients to break.For volatility to be fearless, you know, you don’t have to trade these, and if you don’t own them or if you want to add to them, you’re going to get an opportunity in 2026.

15:38 spk_0

Mayor, do you see that reset happening in the 1st quarter? And if you do, what is that, what triggers that moment?

15:46 spk_2

Well, I think you’re already in it. I think it’s already started. Um, and we got a really strong GDP report, and the market’s not going to now like rate cuts. So, you know, I, I think you’ve already started part of the volatility that we’re going to see in 2026. So, um, the other concern I have is earnings have been spectacular, and analysts didn’t see the earnings right away. At least not all of the analysts saw the earnings right away.And now everybody seems to be on board, you know, the, in general, the market is looking for earnings to grow 15% next year. And the market, maybe earnings can be up 15%, but if we don’t meet expectations or the whisper numbers, the market is not going to like that. So I think that’s another big hurdle that we’reGoing to have in 2026 is can we beat these now high expectations in the earnings forecasts?

16:43 spk_0

You’ve been bullish, Marianne, if I’m right, semiconductor since 2012. How is covering this space and picking stocks in the space different today than it was in 2012? Outside of just the evaluations, of course, are a lot different, I’m sure.

16:57 spk_2

Well, when I first started to like semis, there was no theme, not certainly not an AI story.So, um, now we have a theme. Now we understand why semiconductors are no longer commodities, and they’re a growth story. Um, so that’s probably the big difference is now we have a major growth story under AI. And, you know, and Nvidia has, you know, basically rewritten the path for semiconductor chips, um, and the whole stack build out. And yes, you know, you’re going to have ebbs and flows.You know, stocks are going to go up, stocks are going to come down, but in general, I see tech leading this rally and particularly semiconductors out into the end of the decade, into 2029, 2030, and that would target the S&P up around 10,000 to 13,000. So again, that’s why we’re calling 2026, you know, to be fearless that there’s still significant upside in this market, particularly for technology. So

17:59 spk_0

youdon’t see an AI bubble.

18:01 spk_2

No, I don’t, I don’t see a bubble at all. However, I do believe we’re going to be going into a bubble. Um, we’ve compared this market to, uh, you know, the late 90s, 2000 period, and the, the bubble that we had in the 20s, in the 1920s. And we’re tracking pretty similarly. In fact, it’s kind of eerie how we’re actually tracking, um,That pattern. So I see a bubble occurring, but not out until maybe 29 into 30.

18:33 spk_0

You know what I find eerie, Marianne, uh, if you’re right on the S&P 500, it hits 10,000 or over, whatever it is, um, do you think it will be still concentrated in the seven MG 7 names?

18:46 spk_2

Uh, the way the market is trading now, I would have to say yes. What the market really needs is for companies to become public. Um, and that’s been one of the big changes, um, to our market is companies are staying private longer. And that’s really changed the structure of how many companies that we have in the, in the public markets. When I came to Wall Street, there were over 5000 listed stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, and that’s almost now contracted to almost half of that.So it’s pretty scary in the sense that we don’t have as many, and that’s not allowing the markets to broaden out, because even though we have concentration in what we call mag 7, you have concentration in almost every sector of the market. So, it’s the structure of the market has dramatically changed since I first entered Wall Street.

19:36 spk_0

If you, it sounds like you’re still, you’re still longer term bullish on semiconductors. If that’s the case and we’re gonna continue along this path of the AI revolution, what does it mean for software companies? I just had Dan Ives, uh, on with me a couple of minutes ago. We’re talking about software, Palantir, Salesforce. How are, how are those big cap tech stocks that are not in the MAG 7, how are they impacted by this?

19:58 spk_2

Well, it’s kind of interesting because originally when I came into this year, I thought software could do well, and then all of AI happened and then software has lagged. And I think software has to learn how to play in this new AI world. Um, we’re always going to need software, so it, I don’t think it’s an end of an industry, but they may have to up their game to play in an AI world.

20:21 spk_0

Lastly, uh, Marianne, I’m asking all my guests this week, uh, what has been your biggest surprise in markets this year?

20:28 spk_2

So, I was bullish gold coming into the year, and I did have a 4000 target. Now, I’m not trying to pat myself on the back. But to be honest, I didn’t necessarily think we would hit 4000 this year. Um, so what has really surprised me is not only the move in gold, but how now silver has broken out to a record all-time high and is in a new secular bull market. Copper has broken out to an all-time new high. We’re seeing the whole metal space break out. And that isBecome extremely bullish for the metal stocks, and that is probably one of the biggest surprises. We now have metal stocks in a new secular bull market along with the metals.

21:08 spk_0

All right, we’ll have to leave it there. Marianne, big longtime fan of your work. Thanks for always making time for Yahoo Finance. Happy holidays.

21:14 spk_2

Same to you.

21:15 spk_0

All right, that does it for Morning Brief presented by Robinhood. I’ll be back in just a moment on opening bid. We’re rocking here today. Let’s go.