Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall, oil surges as Middle East conflict escalates

Web Desk March 12, 2026

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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall, oil surges as Middle East conflict escalates

US stock futures retreated on Thursday as oil prices pressed higher amid signs the Iran war is widening across the Middle East to further threaten disruption to energy supplies.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were down 0.8%, following a second straight mostly down day on Wall Street. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell 0.6% as stocks pared earlier morning losses of about 1%.

Oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel before falling back as Iran escalated its attacks on energy infrastructure across a wider swath of the Middle East. Iraq closed its oil port terminals after strikes on two tankers off its coast, as Iran warned markets to be ready for crude prices to hit $200. That stoked fears of a prolonged and widespread conflict, already in play after President Trump vowed to “finish the job” in Iran.

Brent (BZ=F) crude was up over 4% at about $96 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) topped $91, as those worries overshadowed a record release of energy reserves overseen by the International Energy Agency.

On the macro front, initial jobless claims held steady week-over-week. Labor Department data showed that 213,000 people filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Mar. 7, below economists’ expectations of 215,000 initial claims.

Given the latest CPI inflation reading met expectations on Wednesday, the Fed is seen as likely to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, as uncertainty around the impact of higher oil prices on inflation prompts caution. The February reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide more input when it’s released on Friday.

In earnings, Adobe (ADBE) and Dollar General (DG) highlight Thursday’s docket.

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Initial jobless claims hold steady week over week, coming in below estimates

Initial jobless claims held steady from the previous week, undershooting economist estimates.

Data released by the Labor Department showed that 213,000 people filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Mar. 7, coming in below economists’ expectations of 215,000 initial claims.

Continuing claims for the week ended Feb. 21 totaled 1.85 million, above consensus estimates of 1.84 million and below the previous week’s 1.87 million continuing claims.

This week’s jobless claims come after the Labor Department’s February jobs report, published March 6, showed that the US lost 92,000 jobs for the month, far below estimates of 55,000 jobs added.

“You have to separate a pretty strong labor market with very weak hiring — they are two different things,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said on Bloomberg TV after the initial claims report was released.
Dollar General earnings beat, but the stock is selling off

Dollar General (DG) reported solid earnings above Wall Street’s expectations on Thursday, but the stock sold off after a run higher.

In the fourth quarter, the dollar store chain’s earnings per share of $1.93 beat estimates of $1.64. Net sales increased 5.9% year over year to $10.9 billion, also beating analyst estimates of $10.8 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

For the year ahead, Dollar General’s financial outlook expects sales growth of approximately 3.7% to 4.2% and earnings in the range of $7.10 to $7.35. The same-store sales growth outlook of 2.2% to 2.7% was a bit lighter than expected.

The stock was down % in premarket trading. Over the past year, the stock has risen 84% as Dollar General has benefited from the value theme across retail, as pinched consumers trade down.

“DG is gaining traction on its back to basics focus, evidenced by solid trade in customer growth and success in executing its retail 101 playbook,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a Feb. 26 note to clients. “We view this as supportive of business momentum, although with the stock trading at 21x [calendar year earnings per share] and up 17% [year to date] we believe much of the good news is already captured.”
War spending sinks long-term government bonds on deficit worries

Bloomberg reports:

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Premarket trending tickers: PetCo, travel stocks, and Honda

Petco (WOOF) stock rose 7% during premarket hours on Thursday after the company reported sales in line with analysts’ estimates on Wednesday.

Travel stocks edged lower on Thursday before the bell, with Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival Cruiseline (CCL), and American Airlines (AAL) all falling roughly around 2%. Travel stocks have been impacted by the Iran war, as oil prices rise due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, causing many analysts to state that fuel costs of airlines and cruise operators will also increase.

Honda (HMC) stock fell 7% before the bell today after a report on Thursday stated that the automaker expects to lose $15 billion due to scrapping its electric vehicle models.
Oil tankers attacked off Iraq as Middle East crisis worsens

Attacks on vessels in Gulf waters have intensified in recent days, widening the Iran conflict and dashing market hopes for a swift end to hostilities. The latest strikes on Thursday promise to further disrupt the crude supply chain and fuel further gains in oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices.

Bloomberg reports:

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Bumble stock rockets more than 20% higher on earnings beat

Bumble (BMBL) stock soared 20% aduring premarket hours on Thursday after the dating app operator reported better-than-expected first quarter revenue guidance as well as fourth quarter revenue and earnings beats.

For Q1, Bumble expects revenue of $209 million to $213 million, with a midpoint above analyst estimates of $210 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Reuters reports that Bumble is beginning to see early benefits from its turnaround plan:

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Bitcoin falls as oil surges with investors seeking to reduce risk exposure

Bloomberg reports:

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Oil surges on Iraq port closure despite IEA reserve release

Bloomberg reports:

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Atlassian cuts 10% of staff on AI changes, spikes after-hours before paring gains

Bloomberg reports:

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