CCTV Script 16/03/26
– This is the script of CNBC’s financial news report for China’s CCTV on March 16, 2026.
After the Asian market opened this morning, WTI crude futures briefly surged above $100 per barrel, but then fluctuated around the $100 level, seemingly lacking upward momentum. Kpler, a commodities data analytics firm, told CNBC this morning that the market may still not fully recognize the scale of the supply shortfall. Let’s first take a look at the situation currently drawing market attention.
Kpler analyst Matt Smith told CNBC that over the past weekend several oil tankers did pass through the Strait of Hormuz, including the first non-Iranian tanker that had its Automatic Identification System, or AIS, switched on. However, analysts also noted that compared with the usual flow of more than one hundred tankers, only a handful of vessels have passed through so far. Overall, the situation has not truly been resolved.
At the same time, markets are also watching developments involving Iran’s key crude export hub, Kharg Island, which was recently targeted in a U.S. airstrike. Local storage facilities have reportedly not been seriously damaged so far. But on Sunday local time, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz reiterated President Donald Trump’s threat toward the energy infrastructure on Kharg Island. Analysts at JPMorgan say the U.S. strike on Kharg Island, along with Trump’s threats to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, marks a significant escalation of the conflict. If those threats materialize, it could trigger strong retaliation from Iran.
Analysts say the full impact of the supply shock has not yet been felt mainly because of shipping delays. Much of the crude oil had already been loaded before the crisis erupted and is still in transit at sea. At the same time, however, some Gulf producers have already been forced to cut production due to the lack of available tankers. In the coming weeks, if these supplies fail to reach the market on schedule, the severity of the supply disruption may become much clearer.
Kpler’s analysis suggests the Middle East conflict is unlikely to be resolved quickly in the short term. Whether it is restoring shipping through naval escorts or easing tensions through diplomatic coordination, both will take time. Their baseline view is that the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain closed or severely restricted over the coming weeks.
Matt Smith
Lead Oil Analyst
Kpler
“if we’re going to see the Strait of Hormuz closed for large part for two to three weeks here, then by all means, we should be seeing oil prices pushing up over 120 130, something like that. Perhaps, if it’s beyond that time frame, then we’re looking at a charge towards the $150 level and untested waters here, you know, record highs.”
Against the backdrop of sharp volatility in energy markets, data shows that a large number of retail investors are now pouring into crude oil trading.
According to data provider VandaTrack, over the past five trading days, inflows from retail investors into the U.S. crude oil ETF USO have reached a record $115 million.
Analysts at Vanda say going long on crude oil could become the next meme trade among retail investors — referring to investment themes that quickly go viral on social media and attract large numbers of retail traders.
Analysts also warn that investors should better understand how the products they are buying actually work. Many investors, for example, may not even realize that USO is structured as a futures-based product, often buying first and only later figuring out what they actually purchased.
In addition to oil, some analysts told CNBC that the broader commodities market could also strengthen further.
Peter Boockvar
CIO
One Point BFG Wealth Partners
“I think the commodity bull market that was mostly in precious metals and industrial metals in 2025 has now widened out to oil and gas and ag agriculture being positively impacted, at least crop price wise, to what’s going on with the disruptions in fertilizer and ammonia delivery and sulfur, which are inputs into making phosphate.”
