Modest Rise in Local Gold Prices as Markets Await the Fed’s Decision Following Surprise Jobs Data

Gold prices in the local market recorded a slight increase during mid-day trading on Saturday, coinciding with the global market holiday. This comes after the ounce ended last week down 0.5%, pressured by global market volatility, a stronger dollar, and a decline in investor expectations for an imminent rate cut in December, according to a report from the “iSagha” gold and jewelry trading platform.

Said Embabi, CEO of the platform, stated that gold prices rose by about 10 EGP compared to Friday’s close, with 21-karat gold reaching 5,450 EGP per gram, while the global ounce fell by approximately $21 to settle at $4,065.

The price of 24-karat gold reached 6,229 EGP, while 18-karat stood at around 4,671 EGP, and the gold pound stabilized at 43,600 EGP.

Muted Global Performance for the Yellow Metal

Precious metals showed little momentum throughout the week despite geopolitical tensions and increased speculation about potential monetary easing. Gold traded within a narrow $100 range, holding support near $4,000 and facing resistance around $4,100, touching a weekly low of $3,997 on Tuesday.

Investors’ focus remained dominated by AI-driven stock market gains, even as markets kept a close eye on the US Federal Reserve in anticipation of a decisive signal regarding the direction of interest rates next month.

US Data Sends Mixed Signals

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its first report since the government shutdown, revealing that 144,000 jobs were added in October — far above expectations of just 50,000 — while unemployment rose to 4.4%, approaching a four-year high.

The bureau announced that the October report will not be issued separately, but will be merged into the November report due on December 16 — immediately after the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The data triggered sharp moves in the CME FedWatch tool, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December surging to 71%, up from just 31% at the start of the day.

Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed remarks. John Williams and Stephen Miran hinted at the possibility of near-term rate cuts, while Susan Collins and Lorie Logan adopted a more cautious tone, stressing that restrictive policy remains appropriate.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped close to its lowest historical readings, with both short-term and five-year inflation expectations declining.

Bond Markets and Silver

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries held steady at 4.08%, while real yields fell to 1.84%.

As for other metals, silver closed the week below $50 per ounce for the first time since November 7, falling 1.5% to $49.91, despite recovering from a daily low of $48.

Strong Trends Supporting Gold Through 2026

Gold continues to post strong performance in the final quarter of the year, rising more than 10% in September, 5% in October, and 4% in November. Its yearly gains are nearing 55%, potentially marking its strongest annual performance since 1979, with the possibility of touching $5,000 per ounce in 2026.

Fundamental factors continue to support gold, including:

Central banks raising their gold reserves toward a targeted average of 30% of total reserves, up from the current 20%

A 17% increase in gold ETF holdings since the start of the year

A strategic shift in portfolio construction toward incorporating essential commodities as hedges against inflation and currency weakness

Expectations of renewed rate cuts in 2026, which could offer further support to the metal

Gold remains at a critical juncture, as weak consumer confidence, a resilient labor market, and dollar volatility intersect with market anticipation of the Fed’s next move. While rising yields and a stronger dollar may pose short-term pressures, long-term drivers — particularly central bank buying and expectations of future rate cuts — continue to provide a solid foundation for the ongoing uptrend.