Is The Stock Ready To Move?
CHONGQING, CHINA AUGUST 26: In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the logo of Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK), a leading American software company known for its design and engineering platforms such as AutoCAD, Revit, and Fusion 360, with the company’s branding visible in the background on August 26, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) is expected to announce its earnings on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The firm currently has a market capitalization of $62 billion. Over the past twelve months, its revenue reached $6.6 billion, and it achieved operational profitability with $1.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.0 billion. The reaction of the stock after the earnings release will be influenced by how the results and predictions align with investor expectations; therefore, an in-depth examination of past performance may be beneficial for those engaged in event-driven trading. Separately, read about the turmoil in Bitcoin: Before Bitcoin Hits $50,000, Ask This One Question.
Here’s how: you can either grasp the historical probabilities and prepare your position ahead of the earnings announcement, or analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings and make a trade the day following the announcement.
View the earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Autodesk’s Historical Chances of a Positive Post-Earnings Return
A few insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- In the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points recorded, yielding 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Consequently, positive 1D returns occurred about 53% of the time.
- This percentage notably climbs to 64% when analyzing data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 10 positive returns is 1.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns stands at -6.9%
Additional data for the recorded 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively less risky strategy (albeit not practical if the correlation is minimal) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the strongest correlation, a trader could adopt a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
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