Osisko Development (TSXV:ODV) Q3 C$150 Million Loss Tests Bullish Profitability Narrative

Osisko Development (TSXV:ODV) has just posted another loss making quarter for FY 2025, with Q3 revenue of C$4.4 million, basic EPS of C$0.80 loss, and net income excluding extra items of C$150.3 million loss. Over recent periods the company has seen revenue move between C$2.6 million and C$6.9 million per quarter, while basic EPS has ranged from C$0.13 loss to C$0.80 loss. This keeps the focus squarely on whether future growth can eventually absorb these ongoing losses and lift margins.

See our full analysis for Osisko Development.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to line them up against the main bullish and bearish stories around Osisko Development to see which narratives the latest margins support and which ones start to look stretched.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Losses Deepen to C$150.3 Million in Q3

• Net income excluding extra items moved from a C$47.4 million loss in Q2 FY 2025 to a C$150.3 million loss in Q3, while revenue over the same quarters went from C$6.9 million to C$4.4 million.
• Critics highlight a bearish concern that a business with trailing twelve month losses of C$250.8 million and Q3 basic EPS of C$0.80 loss is still far from self funding, and that substantial dilution over the past year makes these compounding losses more painful for existing holders.
  • The trailing twelve month net income excluding extra items loss of C$250.8 million compares with quarterly losses that have steadily sat in the tens of millions. This supports the bearish focus on the scale of cash going out the door.
  • The fact that shareholders have already been diluted materially over the last year aligns with the bearish worry that further funding could again come from equity, especially while the company remains unprofitable.

Stay alert to how these larger losses interact with capital raises that affect your stake size and ownership exposure. 🐻 Osisko Development Bear Case

Revenue Ramp Versus Ongoing EPS Pressure

• On a trailing twelve month basis, revenue is C$11.3 million and is forecast to grow about 99% per year, while earnings are forecast to improve at roughly 38.4% per year from a current loss position.
• Supporters point to a bullish case that rapid forecast revenue growth and an expectation of profitability within three years can eventually absorb the current C$1.72 trailing twelve month basic EPS loss. However, the current run of quarterly losses between C$15.8 million and C$150.3 million keeps the path to that outcome heavily dependent on execution.
  • Forecast revenue growth of 99% per year versus about 5% for the broader Canadian market backs the bullish idea that the top line could scale quickly if projects ramp as modeled.
  • At the same time, losses growing around 19.3% per year over five years, combined with recurring quarterly net losses above C$28 million in several recent periods, pushes back on the bullish assumption that EPS will improve smoothly without setbacks.

DCF Fair Value of C$35.71 Versus C$4.07 Share Price

• The shares trade at C$4.07 against a DCF fair value estimate of C$35.71 and a P/B of 2.3x versus a 20.7x peer average and 3.1x for the Metals & Mining industry, while analysts’ average target is C$8.98.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that the current price sits around 88.6% below the DCF fair value and well below the C$8.98 analyst target. However, the same dataset flags substantial dilution and ongoing losses as reasons why the market may still be cautious about closing that valuation gap.
  • The combination of a 2.3x P/B multiple and a C$4.07 share price versus the C$35.71 DCF fair value suggests the stock is priced at a steep discount to modeled asset and cash flow value.
  • However, the history of sizeable net losses, including the recent C$150.3 million quarterly loss, provides a concrete basis for investors who question whether the business can reach the earnings growth path implied by that valuation.

If you want to see how this valuation gap fits into the broader story that investors are building around this business, 📊 Read the what the Community is saying about Osisko Development..

Next Steps

Don’t just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We’ve done an in-depth analysis on Osisko Development’s growth and its valuation to see if today’s price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don’t miss the next big move.

With bulls and bears both finding support in the same set of numbers, the real question is how you read the balance of risk and reward for yourself. To weigh both sides side by side before you act, take a close look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Osisko Development is dealing with large and recurring losses, material shareholder dilution and a long road to self funding despite optimistic forecasts and valuation models.

If these recurring losses and funding risks feel uncomfortable, compare that profile with companies in the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly focus on businesses where downside risk scores are already much tighter.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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