Jim Cramer explains why the market keeps shrugging off the Iran war
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said the stock market’s muted reaction to escalating tensions in the Middle East shows investors are focused on forces far bigger than geopolitics.
“When you saw the news…you had to believe we were just going to get clobbered today,” the “Mad Money” host said, referring to headlines over the weekend that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again.
Despite the U.S. oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude, jumping more than 5% Monday, stocks “barely blinked.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained relatively unchanged, only down 4.87 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.26%.
The resilience comes after a powerful rally, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closing at record highs on April 17. At the start of the Iran war, single-day spikes in oil of today’s magnitude would’ve rattled equities more.
Cramer laid out four reasons why that didn’t happen.
First, he pointed to the bond market, which he has repeatedly called the true driver of stocks.
“The stock market is responding to the bond market,” Cramer said, noting that interest rates remained unchanged even as oil climbed. That stability suggests investors aren’t bracing for a surge in inflation and are expecting rate cuts when Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, takes over.
Second, Cramer said the direct economic impact of higher oil prices may be less significant than in the past. While industries like airlines and cruise operators can feel pressure from rising fuel costs, the broader market appears less sensitive.
“It is beginning to dawn on people that gasoline simply isn’t as important in our lives as it once was,” he said, citing improved fuel efficiency and the U.S.’ reliance on cheaper domestic natural gas. “Natural gas heats and air conditions most homes … our utility bills may actually be going down.”
He also highlighted strong corporate earnings as a stabilizing force.
Results from companies like Cleveland-Cliffs pointed to a healthy manufacturing backdrop. Its CEO Lourenco Goncalves said the company’s “order book is full and the automotive original equipment manufacturers are booking more and more steel from Cliffs,” underscoring steady demand conditions despite broader uncertainty.
Finally, Cramer said the market continues to be powered by what he described as the AI revolution.
“This AI revolution does not know anything about Iran. It doesn’t know about bombing. It doesn’t run on gasoline. And it stops for no one,” he said.
He pointed to a broad ecosystem of companies benefiting from the AI buildout—from chipmakers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to cloud providers like Microsoft and Alphabet. Cramer’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio used by the CNBC Investing Club, owns Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
“Here’s the bottom line: I’m not saying that the Iran war doesn’t matter. If something catastrophic happens … it’ll impact the markets… [But] until the war gets bad enough to impact the bond market, don’t expect it to matter to the stock market.”
