EMEA Morning Briefing : Futures Higher as Markets Weigh Latest Iran Proposal
MARKET WRAPS
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Opening Call:
European stock futures rose early Tuesday. Asia stock benchmarks fell; the dollar and Treasury yields were little changed; while oil futures rose and gold fell slightly.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a higher open early Tuesday in European markets.
Iran has presented regional mediators with a new offer to stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war and a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, said officials familiar with the matter. President Trump and his national-security team are skeptical of Iran’s offer, U.S. officials said.
However, concerns over Iran or oil could take a back seat for now as investors stay focused on corporate bottom lines, said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments. “What drives equity markets is profits-period,” Rosen said. “Everything else is secondary.”
Forex:
The dollar was little changed early Tuesday amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
Efforts to revive U.S.-Iran talks have stalled, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and supply disruptions deepening, said CIMB. “This is despite Iran offering to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade and an end to the war, according to two regional officials,” the bank added.
Bonds:
Prices in the U.S. Treasury market have been steady for so long that traders fear a sharp change in rates is coming-rather than a slow drift-once a major catalyst hits.
The Treasury market has been quiet lately, with 10-year debt barely straying from a yield of 4.3% in April. For traders, that means chances to make money from changes in U.S. debt prices have been nearly nonexistent.
The Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday could move the market.
Energy:
RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said the stage is set for “a cruel summer” for oil prices. “Even if there is a gravity defying breakthrough in negotiations, the recovery of Middle Eastern production will be extremely protracted, given the damage to facilities and fields, as well as freight and other logistic bottlenecks,” Croft said.
“The best-case scenario would see significant quantities coming back in three-to-six months in a moderate damage situation,” she added.
Metals:
Gold edged lower in Asia as investors assessed Iran’s proposal to halt its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Mixed diplomatic signals, including setbacks in planned engagements, have kept conviction low for bullion,” FXEM’s Abdelaziz Albogdady said.
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Sentiment on nickel is supported by the prospect of tighter supplies from Indonesia, as the country has lowered its mining quotas to boost prices and tackle oversupply in the mining industry, ANZ said. This is being compounded by a global shortage in sulphur, a key component used in processing nickel, ANZ added.
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India’s steel-output growth continues to be a standout among the world’s biggest steel-producing economies, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar.
The World Steel Association expects India’s steel demand growth to slow slightly in 2026–to 7.4% from 8% the year prior–before accelerating to 9.2% in 2027, says Dhar.
Globally, crude steel output fell 4.2% in March from a year earlier, underpinned by a contraction in Chinese production. Output also fell in Russia, the European Union and Japan.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
Iran Offers a New Proposal to End War
Iran has presented regional mediators with a new offer to stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a full end to the war and a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, said officials familiar with the matter.
The proposal, presented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over the weekend, is designed to break the deadlock in the conflict and set talks back in motion, the people said. It would see discussions about Iran’s nuclear program shelved. Iran’s mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The Bond Market Is Sleepy. A Sharp Move May Be Coming.
Prices in the $31 trillion U.S. Treasury market have been steady for so long that traders fear a sharp change in rates is coming-rather than a slow drift-once a major catalyst hits.
The Treasury market has been quiet lately, with 10-year debt barely straying from a yield of 4.3% in April. For traders, that means chances to make money from changes in U.S. debt prices have been nearly nonexistent. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices.
Iran Is Flooded With So Much Unsold Oil That It’s Stashing It in Derelict Tanks
Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked.
With oil backing up at home, Iran is reviving derelict sites known as “junk storage,” using improvised containers and trying to ship crude by rail to China. The unusual steps are aimed at delaying an infrastructure crisis and blunting Washington’s leverage in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
Tea, Scones and Geopolitics: What to Know About King Charles’s U.S. Visit
America is turning 250 years old so King Charles III is coming over to mark the occasion and try to patch up the so-called Special Relationship between the U.S. and U.K., which has been strained badly during the second Trump administration. The trip is going ahead despite the attempted attack on Trump at the White House Correspondents dinner over the weekend.
Meta Is Preparing to Have to Undo Its Manus Acquisition After China Ban
Meta Platforms is preparing to have to unwind its acquisition of the artificial-intelligence startup Manus after China banned the transaction on national-security grounds Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meta bought Manus, a China-linked, Singapore-based startup that specializes in building AI agents, in December for $2.5 billion, and quickly moved to integrate the new technology into its systems. Any attempt to undo the acquisition would mean disentangling the two.
OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO
OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers.
Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Expected Major Events for Tuesday
06:00/SWE: Mar Foreign trade
06:45/FRA: Mar Housing starts
07:00/SPN: 1Q Economically Active Population Survey
07:00/SPN: Mar Retail Sales
07:00/SVK: Mar PPI
08:00/AUT: Apr Austria Manufacturing PMI
08:00/ITA: Feb Industrial turnover
09:00/ITA: Mar PPI
10:00/IRL: Mar WPI
10:00/FRA: 1Q Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail
12:00/HUN: Apr Hungarian interest rate decision
23:01/UK: Mar Zoopla House Price Index
23:01/UK: Apr CBI Growth Indicator and Service Sector Survey
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-28-26 0016ET
