Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that AJ Bell plc (LON:AJB) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to UK£4.92 in the past week. Revenues of UK£317m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at UK£0.26, missing estimates by 2.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, AJ Bell’s eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£349.6m in 2026. This would be a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 5.1% to UK£0.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£341.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.28 in 2026. So it looks like there’s been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.

View our latest analysis for AJ Bell

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of UK£5.48, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to AJ Bell’s valuation in the near term. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic AJ Bell analyst has a price target of UK£6.25 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£4.75. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AJ Bell is an easy company to value, or – more likely – the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that AJ Bell’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.3% annually. So it’s pretty clear that, while AJ Bell’s revenue growth is expected to slow, it’s still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on AJ Bell. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AJ Bell going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with AJ Bell .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.