Gold price outlook: 5 key reasons why WGC expects yellow metal prices to surge up to 30% in 2026
After reaching over 50 record highs and rising more than 60% by the close of November, gold has become one of the top-performing assets in 2025. And the yellow metal is likely to continue its bull run next year too.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold prices are further likely to surge by 15-30% in 2026 from current levels, led by a combination of falling yields, heightened geopolitical cues, and a pronounced flight-to-safety, which would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher.
Gold’s forecast for 2026 is shaped by the uncertain economic conditions investors are experiencing. Similar to 2025, the coming year could see considerable fluctuations in financial markets.
“While the current gold price broadly reflects the prevailing macroeconomic consensus and suggests a rangebound performance, our analysis indicates that the forces of softer growth, accommodative policy, and persistent geopolitical risks are more likely to support gold than to undermine it,” WGC said in its report named ‘Gold Outlook 2026’.
What will drive the rally in gold prices in 2026?
Weak Dollar
Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, combined with increased risk aversion, would maintain a favorable environment for gold.
“The combination of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar – both of which remain cyclically high – has historically been a source of support for gold,” the report said.
Central Bank buying
According to the report, continued strategic central bank buying and potential new investment entrants, such as insurance companies in China or pension funds in India, could further support gold’s positive trend even if the economic environment remains relatively benign.
“The decision process for central bank gold buying is often dictated by policy rather than market conditions alone. A significant pullback in purchases to or below pre-COVID levels could create additional headwinds for gold,” it said.
Slowdown in US economy
If US economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates more sharply than expected, gold prices could increase by 5–15%. This rise would be aided by a softer dollar and a stronger preference for safe-haven assets, as per the report.
Gold recycling
Recycling volumes have stayed steady throughout 2025, while India is becoming an important factor. Around 200 tonnes of gold have been pledged via formal channels this year.
If economic challenges cause households to redeem their pledged gold, or if retail customers opt to sell old jewelry rather than buy new pieces, this extra supply could put downward pressure on prices in 2026.
“Recycling has been relatively muted this year after accounting for factors such as the rise in the gold price and the effect of economic growth. This phenomenon has been linked to a notable increase in the use of gold as collateral for loans,” the report said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
