Bitcoin ETF Investors Change Everything: JPMorgan Says No More Crypto Winters

TLDR

• JPMorgan analysts say they remain positive on crypto despite Bitcoin dropping to $81,000 last month and finishing 9% below January levels
• Bitcoin showed its first year-over-year price decline since May 2023, but analysts don’t see a crypto winter coming
• Stablecoin volumes grew for the 17th straight month, showing market strength despite a 20% drop in token market caps
• Prediction market Myriad gives only 6% odds of a crypto winter by February 2026, down from 16% four days earlier
• Standard Chartered cut its 2025 Bitcoin target from $200,000 to $100,000 but says crypto winters are “a thing of the past”

JPMorgan analysts released a statement on Tuesday saying Bitcoin and other digital assets still have room to grow. This comes after Bitcoin dropped as low as $81,000 last month, sparking fears of a prolonged downturn.

LATEST: 📊 JPMorgan analysts say crypto winters may be over as Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle pattern appears to be ending, with the bank maintaining a positive outlook despite last month’s pullback to $81,000. pic.twitter.com/uBSiSSsijY

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The investment bank acknowledged the recent price drops but said they don’t expect a crypto winter. Bitcoin finished November 9% below its January starting price. This marked the first year-over-year decline since May 2023.

As of Tuesday, Bitcoin traded around $93,000. The analysts noted this represents about a 1.5% drop from recent peaks. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s price has fallen 5% according to CoinGecko data.

JPMorgan analysts said digital asset prices were “inflated immediately following the 2024 U.S. general election” and President Donald Trump’s re-election. The market pullback that followed saw token market caps contract by over 20%. Trading volumes also dropped during this period.

Despite these declines, the analysts pointed to positive signs in the market. Stablecoins showed what they called “resiliency” with total volume expanding for a 17th consecutive month. This growth continued even during the recent price volatility.

Market Structure Changes

The analysts wrote they “struggle to see these recent market pullbacks as emblematic of broader structural degradation” in crypto. They said they “continue to be positive on the space.” This view suggests JPMorgan sees the current situation as a temporary correction rather than a fundamental problem.

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The bank’s position effectively signals the end of Bitcoin’s historical four-year price cycles. These cycles have been linked to Bitcoin’s halving events. But the market has changed drastically in recent years with new types of investors entering.

Prediction market platform Myriad showed users giving just 6% odds of a crypto winter by February 2026. Four days earlier, those same odds stood at 16%. The platform is run by Dastan, which is Decrypt’s parent company.

Bitcoin ETF Impact

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas told Decrypt in August that Bitcoin ETF investors are “more stable owners.” He said this should lead to “more stable prices.” The analyst suggested 80% drawdowns appear unlikely to happen again.

Standard Chartered Bank released its own note on Tuesday with similar views. The British bank now forecasts Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by end of 2025. This is down from a previous target of $200,000.

The bank pushed back its long-term $500,000 target from 2028 to 2030. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets, wrote that “crypto winters are a thing of the past.” He cited expectations of looser monetary policy at the Federal Reserve.

Standard Chartered did note that inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently tapered off. The bank still maintains its view that the market structure has fundamentally changed. Both JPMorgan and Standard Chartered point to ETF investors bringing more stability to crypto markets.