Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures sink as oil and yields jump amid inflation jitters

Two market history studies are telling very different stories about this rally, notes Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre in today’s Chart of the Day.

He writes:

The first one is giving bulls permission to stay in the trade. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) just flashed a rare weekly momentum signal, closing above its upper Bollinger Band for the first time in more than a year.

In plain English: The S&P 500 ETF just surged above its normal trading range — something it’s only done seven prior times since launching in 1993.

… The second study is where the story gets trickier.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has been hitting records with fewer than 60% of stocks trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to Bespoke Investment Group, circulated by the Market Ear.

The only other period where that combination showed up was from December 1998 through March 2000 — the final stretch of the dot-com melt-up.

Read more here.

As stock futures start the day in negative territory, here’s a look at some key movers ahead of the opening bell that we’re keeping an eye on:

Applied Materials (AMAT) shares dipped 1% despite the company sailing past earnings estimates on Thursday afternoon amid strong demand for its chipmaking tools. Applied Material’s third quarter earnings and revenue forecasts also exceeded estimates.

Figma (FIG) stock jumped 9% after the design platform raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $1.42 billion and $1.43 billion, up from its prior forecast of $1.36 billion to $1.37 billion.

Boeing (BA) shares were roughly flat as President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded their Beijing summit. The stock slid on Thursday after Trump announced China had ordered 200 planes, a letdown for investors, who had been speculating about a potential “mega deal” in the works.

Cerebras (CBRS) stock traded lower on Friday morning to follow a stunning 68% pop on its first day of trading. The IPO was priced at $185 per share and opened at $350. The AI chipmaker’s shares closed at $311 apiece on Thursday.

Check out more trending tickers here.

Pershing Square founder and Warren Buffett acolyte Bill Ackman disclosed on X on Friday that his hedge fund is taking a stake in Microsoft (MSFT).

Ackman stated that Microsoft is “a company we have followed for many years now offered at a highly compelling valuation.”

Ackman added that Microsoft’s multiple does not reflect the value of its 27% stake in OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), which he said would be approximately $200 billion, or 7% of Microsoft’s market capitalization.

The move shows dip-buying behavior as Microsoft stock has tumbled 15% year to date, versus a 9% gain in the S&P 500.

Read more here from Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi.

Reuters reports:

The global bond market limped to the end of a bruising week on Friday, as growing evidence of economic ‌damage from the Iran war prompts investors to assume interest rates will ‌rise faster than expected and growth will suffer.

U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest since in around a year ​as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates to rein in inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war-fuelled energy shocks.

German, Italian and French bonds came under fire in early European trading, while Japanese bond yields hit record highs.

… Inflation ⁠data this week has shown consumers and businesses are starting to see big increases in price pressures as a result of the war, which has pushed up the price of ​crude by ​over 50%.

Read more here.

Reuters reports:

Asian shares dived on Friday as investor euphoria over tech stocks gave way to inflation fears that saw Treasury yields spike to one-year highs and rising bets on a U.S. rate hike this year.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 2.3% and was set for a weekly loss of 1.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei (^N225) also dropped 1.8% as data showed the country’s wholesale inflation accelerated to 4.9% in April, the fastest pace in three years, leaving the Bank of Japan on track to raise interest rates.

South Korea’s KOSPI (^KS11) topped ​8,000 ​points for the first time and then crashed, falling by over 5%. China’s blue-chip eased ​0.6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (^HSI) index fell 1.4%.

Read more here.

Bloomberg reports:

Oil headed for a weekly gain as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with efforts to end the war in limbo and disruptions that have upended global markets set to linger.

Brent (BZ=F) crude rose toward $107 a barrel, with futures up around 5% this week. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $102. A US naval blockade of Iran’s ports remains in place, while the waters in the region continue to be treacherous for mariners. A commercial vessel was seized by unauthorized personnel at the entrance to the strait and taken into Iranian waters.

US President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, and the two discussed keeping Hormuz open to support energy trade, along with improving American oil flows to the Asian nation, according to a White House official. China’s official readout of the meeting did not include energy among the topics discussed, but it did say the Middle East was addressed.

The war has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if hostilities end next month, the International Energy Agency said this week. US data released on Tuesday underscored how the conflict is reigniting inflation, piling domestic pressure on Trump ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Read more here.