The 12 Oscar Contenders of Christmas

You better watch out, you better not cry, you better not pout, I’m telling you why — because with next week’s Christmas releases, every Oscar contender will have been released. To celebrate the occasion, the Academy on Tuesday released this year’s Oscar shortlists, which marks the first time all season actual industry voters have weighed in with their picks in the race. That’ll be the last piece of news we have on the Oscar aspirants for a while*, so as usual around these parts, let’s use the holidays as an excuse to zoom out and look at the front-runners as we now know them.

As I always say, Oscar movies look very different now than they did 20 years ago: a bit more populist and a good deal more global. Still, shift your perspective a tad, and suddenly this year’s crop appears to fit the classic Oscar mold. The presumptive top five in the Best Picture race includes two auteur-driven blockbusters, one old-school weepie, one timely social drama, and one family saga by a venerated European director. Two of them are even based on renowned novels! Here’s my list of the top 12 titles in the running, starting with the one film that’s got to be feeling holly-jolly.

*”Gold Rush” and “Oscar Futures” are also taking a break for the holidays. The next edition of this column will arrive January 2.

The tastemakers did their dirty work, now Paul Thomas Anderson’s film will head into the New Year in the most dominant position of any front-runner in over a decade. The last time a film went three for three with the New York and Los Angeles film critics and the National Board of Review was The Social Network 15 years ago. That example proves it’s not always good to be the early favorite, but on the other hand … sometimes, it is! Occasionally, you get a season where everything lines up, when all of Hollywood comes together and agrees that It’s Time. And that, Mark Harris once noted, is the most “bulletproof” of narratives. It doesn’t feel as if anyone’s sick of One Battle yet, and those I talk to tend to assume it’s a done deal that Paul Thomas Anderson will get his flowers — a win that would reflect the post-Parasite Academy’s preference for films that reflect contemporary society. (Even if, like the one in OBAA, they skew about ten degrees off reality.)

The People’s Champion in the race, facing two huge obstacles in its path to overtaking OBAA. One, despite Sinners releasing first, could it be too similar to the front-runner — which is likewise an entertaining genre flick about white supremacy’s libidinal attraction to Blackness — to differentiate itself? And two, they come from the same studio, Warner Bros., meaning Sinners’s own campaign isn’t exactly invested in One Battle losing its grip on the top spot. All that aside, the vampire epic is otherwise performing close to preseason expectations, earning the most mentions on this week’s Oscar shortlists and setting Ryan Coogler up for his first Best Director nomination a few months shy of his 40th birthday.

Months ago, who would have guessed that the most polarizing film in the Oscar race would be … an adaptation of a novel about Shakespeare’s wife? Hamnet is an impressively acted, handsomely mounted, and sensitively made movie. Critics have largely fallen under its emotional spell; at the same time, its TIFF People’s Choice win proves it is not just a movie for eggheads. And yet, for a vocal minority, there is something fraudulent about Chloé Zhao’s film that cannot be abided. That may hamper its chances of upsetting OBAA in the big races, but it hasn’t stopped Jessie Buckley from becoming the overwhelming favorite in the Best Actress race — her performance is the one thing about Hamnet that almost everyone can agree on.

As much as this Oscar season feels like it belongs to Paul Thomas Anderson, it also belongs to Jafar Panahi. Since Accident won the Palme d’Or in May, the year has essentially functioned as one long living wake for the sunglass-loving Iranian auteur. The moral drama marks Panahi’s first film made outside the confines of house arrest since 2006, and possibly his last before another prison sentence — all of which adds particular stakes to his campaign. This is PTA’s time, yes, but in a more urgent sense, it’s Panahi’s time as well. Better give him the International Film Oscar (and how many others?) while you still can.

Ho-hum. Just three spots on the Oscar shortlists for Joachim Trier’s film, which manages to feel like a perpetual bridesmaid even though it’s a surefire Best Picture contender whose floor is six Oscar nominations. The weird vibe is due to Sentimental Value being constantly put against two other films: Not only It Was Just an Accident, with which it shares a distributor (Neon) as well as a similar awards lane (International), but also Trier’s last movie, The Worst Person in the World. In a way, Sentimental Value is both boosted and hamstrung by the comparison to Worst Person. It’s getting the widespread appreciation that Hollywood now wishes it would have given Trier back in 2021, even though many viewers admit that, of the pair, they prefer the earlier film.

When Nightmare Alley underperformed at the 2021 Oscar shortlists, I took it as a sign that Guillermo del Toro had lost some of his sway over the crafts branches of the Academy. How wrong I was! That film still wound up with four Oscar noms, including a spot in Best Picture, and I vowed I would never underestimate GDT again. (His penchant for ending his acceptance speeches with a hearty “Fuck AI” is no doubt genuine, but also a sign the man knows his base.) Seven spots on the shortlists for Frankenstein means del Toro can probably book his ticket to the Dolby now, even though a lack of fervent support could once again land him outside the Director five.

A film named after a Metrograph fuckboy’s two favorite things, Marty Supreme has unsurprisingly carved out a niche as the hypebeast pick in the race before it’s even opened. The good news is that Marty has managed to do what a previous Safdie film, Uncut Gems, never could: Its buzz appears to have escaped the bounds of the tastemaker atmosphere and penetrated the Academy proper. The Ping-Pong drama showed out well at the shortlists, but the real test will come in Best Actor. Can Timothée Chalamet become the youngest winner since The Pianist’s Adrien Brody?

Just as pundits were beginning to write off the Wicked sequel, it went and tied Sinners for the most spots on the Oscar shortlists. (Musicals!) Fool’s gold, or an encouragerizing sign for the Wizard of Oz revamp? The fact that For Good got into the Casting lineup, despite featuring the exact same actors as the first one, makes me think voters are looking for reasons to reward Jon M. Chu’s film. Maybe its Best Picture hopes haven’t melted after all.

The same goes for Fire and Ash, which is working the boys-with-toys version of Wicked’s Oscar journey: relatively middling reviews (except from our own Bilge Ebiri) and boffo box-office that is nevertheless a step down from its predecessor. But just like its pink-and-green compatriot, the year’s bluest contender nevertheless showed up everywhere it was supposed to on the shortlists and seems assured of ending Oscar night with at least one crafts trophy. As in baseball, the awards race may be winnowing to the two true outcomes — a world where Best Picture nominees are either a huge Hollywood blockbuster or a foreign-language film from Cannes.

Though human-scale adult dramas have all but disappeared from the box-office landscape, two types of movies have been able to escape the bloodbath. The first are international films, which are already assumed to be specialty objects and thus can’t really be hurt by disappointing grosses. The second are streaming films, which get around the box-office issue by not having any. Whether this Netflix acquisition cracks the Best Picture lineup a year after its filmmakers’ previous effort, Sing Sing, did not, will be a telling indication of the state of the American indie.

Interestingly enough, while OBAA soars, other Hollywood films that attempt to tap into the particular insanity of the 2020s — movies like Bugonia and Eddington — have met with a quieter reception from critics groups. In the second Trump era, these viewers seem to prefer a more allusive approach, processing the times through movies about other countries’ authoritarian governments. That winning factor propelled It Was Just an Accident into a likely Best Picture spot, and could well do the same for its Neon stablemate, which is not just a piercing depiction of life under Brazil’s military dictatorship but also a dang fun time as well.

First off, I swear I am not on Neon’s payroll. Four films in the top 12 would be ridiculous for anyone, not least an indie distributor. It’s just that every year, there’s one title that comes out of nowhere to make a huge impression on the shortlists. This year it was the Spanish submission, which popped up not just in its expected categories, but also places no one expected, like Casting and Cinematography. Who knew the Academy was so into postapocalyptic desert raves? The comparison to Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front is natural and flattering: That film’s surprisingly successful advance through the shortlists ended with it winning four Oscars. However, All Quiet was Netflix’s No. 1 priority, while Neon has its hands full with three other Best Picture contenders. Still, an old Oscar adage says a Best Picture bid is built branch by branch; a new one says we should never underestimate the power of the international voting bloc. Both of those together add up to a great week for Sirāt.

Also in the running … In rough alphabetical order: Bugonia (has the pedigree but maybe not the passion), Jay Kelly (made it onto Barack Obama’s list, which is proof it’s hitting its target audience), No Other Choice (seems to have been overtaken by Sirāt).

By now, we’ve all had time to digest the news that the Oscar telecast will head to YouTube, starting with the 101st ceremony in 2029. My first reaction was, to quote Tony Soprano, feeling like I came in at the end of something. For those in search of alternative perspectives, Michael Schulman notes that the entire idea of the Oscars being on TV in the first place was itself a concession to a previous existentially threatening technology. And my colleague Joe Adalian argues that losing the Oscars could be good for ABC. Which is not exactly the same thing as losing ABC being good for the Oscars, though others have made that case — perhaps no longer being tied to a broadcaster that seems embarrassed by the idea of “art films” will let the ceremony return to its ideal form, a four-hour extravaganza of shameless glitz and glamour.

Still, there’s a bittersweet poignancy to the 100th Oscars also being the last traditional broadcast, a swan song for the long-ago time when the ceremony occupied the very center of popular culture. Anyone who thinks that this is an issue that could have been solved by nominating a couple more Spider-Man movies is fooling themselves. There are world-historical trends at work here that are bigger than any decision made by the Academy’s governors. The Oscars became a niche product because everything is a niche product today. Norma Desmond was right: The pictures got small. Now here come the Oscars in 480p.

Every week between now and January 22, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Photo: 20th Century Studios/Everett Collection

It may take place on a fully realized CGI moon, but critics generally think James Cameron’s third Avatar is all too earthbound. “A certain sameness has set in,” says Peter Howell, who dings the sequel for feeling “like it’s hitting multiple speed bumps on a road it has already driven, twice, in an even bigger car.” Still, like Wicked: For Good, Fire and Ash’s awards campaign is largely criticproof. If it gets in, it’ll be on the back of VFX and box office.

Photo: Jason McDonald/Searchlight Pictures

Unfortunately, it appears to be off. Bradley Cooper’s divorce dramedy arrives in theaters this Christmas having already exhausted whatever awards buzz it might have possessed — nary a mention from the major critics’ groups, the NBR, or the Golden Globes. Perhaps it’s because this is a very nice film, one critics like Jeannette Catsoulis call “sometimes too careful for its own good, [but] also deeply trusting of its leads.” After the grandeur of A Star Is Born and Maestro, a smaller-scale effort like this feels like an intentional reset, and given what happened to Cooper the last time he was on the Oscar trail, taking a breather may not be the worst thing.

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

Photo: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

One natural law that does exist on Pandora is the law of diminishing returns. Even though Cameron came close to winning this trophy for the first Avatar, and even though the new one is going to make Eywa only knows how much money, he’ll likely miss out on a Directing nom once again. The same thing happened to Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two last year. Like it or not, Oscar voters operate under the ethos of What have you done for me lately?

Photo: Theo Wargo/WireImage

How Ann Lee–pilled am I? I’ve been known to proclaim that, had the film’s credits said “Directed by Brady Corbet” instead, we’d be talking about it as an across-the-board contender rather than simply a Best Actress play. Of course, when I tell people that, they tend to look at me like my eyeballs are falling out of my head, a sentiment confirmed when the Shaker musical totally blanked at the Oscar shortlists. Is it simply too alienating a pitch for meat-and-potatoes Academy voters? Considering how much they ate up The Brutalist last year, this whole thing smacks of gender.

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Chalamet did not run an Oscar campaign last year — not really, anyway — and he’s not running one this year. His much-ballyhooed press tours are not aimed at awards voters; they’re aimed at Gen-Z men, who require a hard sell to buy tickets for a period piece about a Ping-Pong player or a biopic of an old folk singer. The average Academy member is 60 years old. They’re not seeing this stuff! But I confess, in a world where too many young male stars feel like they have to act like the second coming of Marlon Brando, I’m glad he’s having fun out there.

Photo: Eric Zachanowich/A24/Everett Collection

As one Safdie brother’s film arrives in theaters to stellar reviews, the other’s has largely faded from the scene. But not entirely: The Smashing Machine managed to get onto the Best Makeup & Hairstyling shortlist. That and a Golden Globe nomination will get you a cup of cod in this town.

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Photo: Focus Features

Hudson’s co-star, Hugh Jackman, raised eyebrows at the Gotham Awards, where he proudly promised this film would secure his leading lady her long-awaited trophy. (A proclamation delivered with the blithe confidence of someone who maybe hasn’t seen any other films in the race.) Unfortunately, reviews are decidedly mixed for this ripped-from-the-headlines tale of a Neil Diamond tribute act. “Hudson radiates as she sings,” says Mark Kennedy, but overall, the movie’s “just not so good, so good.”

Photo: Searchlight Pictures

The most brutal miss on the Oscar shortlist came in Best Original Song, where Ann Lee’s “Clothed by the Sun” missed out in favor of numbers from three films I had honestly never heard of before. And they were definitely going for a Song nomination: Seyfried and composer Daniel Blumberg performed the piece live at a bunch of FYC events. The Academy’s Music branch can be idiosyncratic — Seyfried won’t be up against Diane Warren in Best Actress — so I don’t think this means Ann Lee is totally doomed. But if this “tour de force” performance does wind up outside the Oscar Five, there’ll be a whole lotta (head) Shakin’ going on.

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good; Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Photo: Netflix

Which decision was the Academy’s casting branch recognizing when they put Frankenstein on their shortlist? Probably not Oscar Isaac, who’s fine, and probably not Christoph Waltz, who’s giving the same performance he always does. It’s gotta be Elordi, right? With Frankenstein cementing its place in the Best Picture lineup, the unexpected triumph of the Aussie’s last-minute casting is a solid narrative, though the Charles Melton Rule says that a hunk’s place is not secure until their name is physically being read on nomination morning.

Photo: Searchlight Pictures

I’ll say this for Cooper: Casting himself as a doofus named Balls is certainly one way to clear out the cobwebs. As Keith Phipps says, though, “his performance often seems to belong to a much more straightforward comedy than everyone else.”

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Photo: Warner Bros.

My colleague Jason Frank stopped me in my tracks last week when he asked this: How sure are we that Madigan isn’t just this year’s J.Lo in Hustlers — the performance that everyone on the internet buzzes about but the industry ignores? Indeed, I’ve seen signs that Weapons might not have the kind of buy-in we’d assume. (I mentioned director Zach Cregger’s name to one insider recently and was met with a blank stare.) On the bright side, the horror hit joined a bunch of Oscar heavyweights on the Best Casting shortlist, so at least some people in Hollywood are making time for it.

Photo: 20th Century Studios/Everett Collection

There’s one element of Fire and Ash that is totally new, and that’s the energy Chaplin brings to the character of Varang, the film’s new baddie. As the leader of a fire-worshipping death cult, the Game of Thrones alum “gives this installment an electricity that the previous two were missing,” says Jake Coyle, who hails her “seductive sadism.” (As we’ve learned, few viewers get out of an Avatar movie without crushing on at least one Na’vi.) Despite James Cameron’s best efforts, we’re still a ways off from motion-capture performances making a dent in the awards race, but perhaps Chaplin will put to bed the old saw that no one can name a single character in this franchise. The people clamor, “More Varang!”

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another