Wheat outlook from global stocks to Oklahoma fields | News
In recent days, we have seen notable fluctuation in crop markets. Multiple factors are the cause of the shifts, including the latest USDA, WASDE projections released after the government reopened. The report impacted almost all the grain future prices the weekend it was published, although prices recovered following Monday. In this occasion, we’ll focus on the wheat situation at different levels and the possible future break-even price for West Oklahoma.
At a global level, despite projection from a Russian institution showing lower production for Russia this year, the overall global wheat supply forecast has increased due to higher yields in major exporters countries such as Australia, the U.S., Canada, and the EU (specially France). With an increase of 11.7 million tons (for a total of 1,090 million tons), Argentina shows the largest growth at 12%, according to the last USDA’s report. Regarding global trade, exports rose by 2.5 million tons (217 million tons) due to expected increases from Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan. Global ending stocks are also forecast higher by 3% (271 million tons), resulting in a stock to use ratio of 22% (excluding China), the highest level since 2020/21. This indicator basically shows the balance of wheat supplies and consumptions. A high stock-to-use level means that market is well supplied, which generally puts downward pressure on prices.
At national context, wheat expectation, according to the latest report, has changed due to increases in supply and expected ending stocks. The shift in supply is driven by higher production, up 58 million bushels (to 1,985 million bushels), reaching a record yield. Domestic consumption remains unchanged at 1,154 million bushels (972 for Food, 62 for Seed, and 120 for Feed and Residual), and exports forecast remains steady at 900 million bushels. However, the last wheat exports inspections surprised after totaling 17.4 million bushels, compared with trade expectations that ranged between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels.
For the 2025-26 marketing year, cumulative exports totals have reached 471.6 million bushels, roughly 20% more than last year’s pace. Exports performance is crucial for future prices behavior in the coming months. Back to the national balance sheet, wheat ending stocks’ projection has increased 7%, reaching 901 million bushels. Consequently, the average farm prices decreased 10 cents to $5.1 per bushel.
For Oklahoma, the Small Grain report released in September indicates lower production compared to last year, driven by a reduction in planted acres (250 acres) and harvested acres (100), while yield remains at 38 bushels per acre. The five years average basis for West Oklahoma during harvest months is: – $0.51 in June, and -$0.56 in July.
The break-even price above variable costs at 38 bu./acre is $4.7. The chart shows the returns after operating costs for different scenarios with yields between 30 and 40 bushels per acre and prices ranging from $5.1 and $5.7. Positive returns appear in almost all yield scenarios, except for 30 bushels at all price levels and 35 bushels at $5.1 per bushel. These return estimates do not include extra income (federal or insurance payment) and many input costs are subject to change.
(Source: Oklahoma State University, Ag Insights, December 2025)
