Santen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here’s What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Santen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4536) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at JP¥1,933 following the release of its quarterly results. Santen Pharmaceutical missed revenue estimates by 2.0%, coming in atJP¥69b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥22.38 beat expectations, coming in 5.2% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Santen Pharmaceutical’s eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥302.7b in 2027. This would be a satisfactory 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥122, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥302.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥122 in 2027. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Santen Pharmaceutical

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,326. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Santen Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,800 and the most bearish at JP¥1,900 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Santen Pharmaceutical’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Santen Pharmaceutical to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there’s been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,326, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Santen Pharmaceutical going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Santen Pharmaceutical’s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.