Results: HelloFresh SE Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.3% to €3.15 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall – although revenues of €1.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, HelloFresh surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.02 per share, a notable 14% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week’s earnings report, HelloFresh’s twelve analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €6.29b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 79% to €0.052. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.33b and losses of €0.028 per share in 2026. So it’s pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on HelloFresh even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

See our latest analysis for HelloFresh

The consensus price target held steady at €5.19, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company’s valuation. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on HelloFresh, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €9.00 and the most bearish at €3.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.1% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It’s pretty clear that HelloFresh’s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HelloFresh’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates – from multiple HelloFresh analysts – going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of HelloFresh’s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.