XRP News Today: Senate Crypto Bill Puts $3 XRP Forecast in Play

The price action underscored XRP’s sensitivity to crypto-related regulatory developments on Capitol Hill, driven by the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case.

The US Court of Appeals approved Ripple and the SEC’s appeal withdrawal motions on August 22. The court ruling legitimized XRP as a non-security, paving the way to the US XRP-spot ETF market.

XRP Bullish Outlook Intact

XRP-spot ETF flow trends and crypto-related legislative developments reaffirmed the bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. Meanwhile, increased utility, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reinforce the positive longer-term price trajectories:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66.

Key Risks Challenge Bullish Outlook

Several scenarios could unravel the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan declares a neutral interest rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%, signaling aggressive rate hikes. A higher neutral rate may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, which would weigh on risk assets.
• US economic data and the Fed are cooling expectations of a March rate cut.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings are likely to temper interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely push the token toward $1.75, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Continue to Signal Caution

XRP gained 0.60% on Saturday, January 3, consolidating the previous day’s 6.76% rally, closing at $2.0184. The token mirrored the broader crypto market cap, which advanced 0.71%.

Despite heading for a four-day winning streak, XRP traded below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a bearish bias. While technicals remained bearish, bullish fundamentals are building, countering the technical structure.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0404.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3472.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Looking at the daily chart, a breakout above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 resistance level into play.

A breakout above the EMAs would reinforce the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.