Bitcoin Pauses After Briefly Touching $79,500 as ETF Inflows, US Regulation Take Center Stage
- BitFi Research said Bitcoin is trading sideways near recent highs after briefly touching $79,500.
- Whether the rally can continue will depend on spot ETF inflows and progress on US crypto regulation.
- About $1.92 billion has recently flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the firm said that will be a key measure of whether the current rebound can be sustained.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin briefly touched $79,500 before pausing near recent highs, with the sustainability of its latest advance hinging on continued inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and progress on US crypto regulation.
BitFi Research, a Hong Kong-based digital-asset research firm, wrote in a report dated Aug. 24 that Bitcoin appears to have broken out of its previous trading range and entered a phase of sideways trading at elevated levels. The recent rally was shaped by a combination of geopolitical risks, long-term US Treasury yields and developments in crypto regulation, the firm said.
BitFi Research said uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is fueling concerns over energy prices and inflation. It also pointed to pressure from the 30-year US Treasury yield, which at one point climbed to about 5.337%. Still, the firm said expanded buybacks of long-term Treasuries by the US Treasury could ease near-term supply pressure.
On the regulatory front, the main variables include the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s crypto-related rule proposals, related policy efforts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the next steps for the Clarity Act. Easing regulatory uncertainty could improve sentiment among institutional investors and in the market for tokenized financial products, according to the report.
Market flows were also identified as a key driver of Bitcoin’s next move. About $1.92 billion has recently flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, while large-scale short liquidations helped accelerate the rally. BitFi Research said those flows will be critical in determining whether the rebound develops into a sustainable medium-term uptrend.
The firm added that investors should watch whether net inflows into ETFs continue even as Bitcoin prices remain elevated, and whether the Coinbase premium, a gauge of spot demand from US investors, turns positive again.
Looking ahead, markets will focus on Clarity Act-related procedures expected around Sept. 15, the SEC’s public comment process for its crypto rule proposals, the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting, and US personal consumption expenditures inflation and employment data.
