What your Social Security cost-of-living adjustment could be in 2027
Social Security will announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in October, once inflation numbers are available, and recipients will receive their personalized notices in December.
According to the latest forecast by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), the annual COLA is projected to be 3.6% in 2027.
This would increase the average retiree’s monthly check by $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28. If this projection holds, it would mark the largest COLA increase in four years and a significant boost from this year’s 2026 COLA of 2.8%, which bumped up the average benefit by $56.
This forecast comes after the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase in consumer prices.
The TSCL will issue another monthly prediction on Sept. 11, following the release of the August inflation data.
Read more: What is the CPI?
How the 2027 COLA estimate compares to previous adjustments
The Social Security Administration will make an official announcement on the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, timed with the release of the September CPI report.
A separate estimate from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, shows the COLA for 2027 may be 3.4%. Johnson had estimated last month that the 2027 COLA could be 3.7%, down from her 4.7% June forecast amid climbing inflation.
“One of the biggest challenges this year has been the sharp swings in inflation. It started at 2.2% in January, climbed to 4.4% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June,” said TSCL executive director Shannon Benton in a statement. “Fortunately, our model is designed not to overreact to these swings, keeping our COLA projections relatively steady.”
The annual adjustment was 2.8% in 2025, 2.5% in 2024, 3.2% in 2023, and 8.7% in 2022.
Read more: Will Social Security go broke in 2032? Here is what’s happening.
How is COLA calculated?
COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The point of these adjustments is to ensure that Social Security benefits keep up with inflation.
A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA for the year.
You can also crunch the numbers yourself and calculate your new Social Security benefit by multiplying the percentage increase by your current monthly benefit amount.
Say you’re receiving $2,071, which is around the current average monthly benefit for retirees according to the SSA. When multiplied by the estimated COLA of 3.6% or 0.036%, you can expect a monthly benefit of about $2,145.56 — a nearly $75 increase.
You can find out exactly how much your benefits will increase by creating an account on SSA.gov. After verifying your account, you’ll be able to get an estimate of your retirement benefits and see how those benefits may change depending on your retirement age.
Read more: When will you get your Social Security check? Payment schedule for August.
