The first major test for gold and silver this year is approaching! Will the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index severely impact the precious metals market?
The precious metals market is facing its annual test, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment triggering a wave of sell-offs. While short-term volatility risks for gold and silver have increased, the medium- to long-term allocation logic remains unchanged.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo its annual rebalancing from January 9 to January 15, 2026. The weights of gold and silver will decrease from 20.4% to 14.9% and from 9.6% to 3.94%, respectively. It is estimated that approximately 2.4 million ounces (equivalent to 6,800 tons) of gold will be sold within five days. Market analysts believe that this will cause short-term price fluctuations in precious metals but will not alter the medium- to long-term allocation rationale.
Introduction to BCOM Index Rebalancing
1. Adjustment Dates: January 9 to January 15, 2026.
2. Definition: The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) undergoes an annual adjustment every January, primarily involving two aspects: weight rebalancing and contract rollover.
3. Purpose: To ensure that the index continues to reflect global commodity markets’ true investment opportunities fairly, effectively, and with diversified asset allocation.
4. Impact: Following this adjustment, gold’s target weight in the index will decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, implying that approximately 2.4 million ounces (equivalent to 6,800 tons) of gold will be sold within five trading days; silver’s weight will drop from 9.6% to 3.94%.
Market Commentary
1. Saxo Bank: The index rebalancing highlights the risk of short-term volatility in precious metals during the rebalancing period, and any potential weakness may present buying opportunities.
2. Huatai Securities: During the index rebalancing period, the pressure from passive allocation sales may be stronger for silver than for gold. Passive selling does not constitute a reversal signal for the medium- to long-term allocation logic of gold and silver.
TD Securities: It is expected that 13% of the total open interest in the Comex silver market will be sold within the next two weeks, leading to a significant repricing decline.
Mitsubishi UFJ: In the short term, gold prices may face pressure from commodity index rebalancing, which could prompt passive funds to reduce positions following last year’s record rally.
Citi: Due to weight adjustments in two major commodity indices, gold futures contracts will see an outflow of $6.8 billion, with a similar scale of outflow expected for silver futures.
JPMorgan: The annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may disrupt the recent strength in precious metals, potentially triggering passive selling of approximately $3.8 billion in silver and $4.7 billion in gold positions.
Societe Generale: The annual index rebalancing poses significant risks to silver and gold prices as they were the top-performing assets in 2025, with silver’s strong rally at the end of last year placing it at the forefront of anticipated net selling.
Deutsche Bank: This index rebalancing could mean the sale of approximately 2.4 million ounces (equivalent to 6,800 tons) of gold over five trading days, while cocoa, crude oil, natural gas, and diesel are expected to benefit.
