Takeda Pharmaceutical (TSE:4502) Valuation Check As Shares Show Strength Over Recent Periods
Takeda Pharmaceutical (TSE:4502) has drawn investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing different return profiles over the past week, month, past 3 months, and year.
See our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical.
That backdrop of partnerships and product lines sits behind a share price of ¥5,080, with a 30 day share price return of 13.32% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 28.88%, suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading over the medium term.
If Takeda has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in healthcare and pharma, including pharma stocks with solid dividends.
So with Takeda trading at ¥5,080, a high value score and a large implied intrinsic discount, is the current price still underestimating the business, or is the market already pricing in much of its future growth potential?
With Takeda closing at ¥5,080 against a narrative fair value of ¥4,946, the current share price sits slightly above that implied level, putting more focus on what is driving the long term earnings story.
The analysts have a consensus price target of ¥5056.071 for Takeda Pharmaceutical based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ¥5900.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ¥4500.0.
Curious what kind of earnings rebound, margin lift, and future P/E multiple need to line up for this valuation to hold together? The full narrative lays out a detailed revenue glide path, a profit margin reset, and a premium earnings multiple that does not match the broader Japan pharma sector. If you want to see how those pieces combine into that fair value, the next step is to read the story behind the numbers.
Result: Fair Value of ¥4,946 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this story can change quickly if generic and biosimilar competition proves more intense than expected or if key late stage pipeline assets fail to deliver.
Find out about the key risks to this Takeda Pharmaceutical narrative.
While the narrative fair value of ¥4,946 points to Takeda as 2.7% overvalued at ¥5,080, our DCF model paints a very different picture, with an estimated fair value of ¥12,446.65. That implies the shares are trading about 59.2% below this cash flow based estimate. The question for investors is which story they consider more persuasive.
