US equities rise as Rieder emerges as Fed favourite and tech earnings loom

Positive start amid FOMC and Fed talks

United States (US) equity markets kicked off the new week on a positive note as investors positioned themselves for a packed calendar featuring mega-tech earnings, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and mounting speculation regarding the future of Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership.

FOMC preview: a likely pause amid leadership speculation

The FOMC meeting is widely expected to result in interest rates remaining on hold within the current target range of 3.50% – 3.75%, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a roughly 95% probability of no change. All eyes will turn to Chair Powell’s press conference for fresh commentary on labour market trends, inflation risks, and potential pauses in policy easing, particularly in light of tariff uncertainties and recent solid economic data.

Meanwhile, speculation over Powell’s successor has intensified. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed income, has quickly emerged as a leading contender for the role. Rarely mentioned in this context until a few weeks ago, Rieder has surged to the forefront of prediction markets following recent praise from President Trump, who called him ‘very impressive’ after a private meeting.

Mega-tech earnings

Beyond the central bank, investors will closely scrutinise earnings reports from four technology giants: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple.

These results will provide critical insights into the trajectory of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. After losing momentum in the final months of 2025 due to growing scrutiny over return on investment, capital expenditure (capex), and real-world constraints, the market is eager to see if the AI narrative can regain traction in 2026.

Forward guidance will be key, alongside scrutiny of margins and capex projections. Specifically, the market is looking for:

• Microsoft: sustained growth in Azure and AI integration
• Meta: continued advertising recovery and efficiency within Reality Labs
• Tesla: progress on autonomy and energy storage to offset pressure on electric vehicle (EV) sales
• Apple: the impact of new AI features and continued momentum in its services division.