Fed meeting today: Live updates
Where markets stand as the Fed’s decision approaches
The major averages were mostly near the flatline at about 1:48 p.m. ET as the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement neared.
The S&P 500 traded about 0.1% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. The Nasdaq Composite was last higher by roughly 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was last higher by about 3 basis points, trading at 4.26%. The rate on the 2-year note was up nearly 2 basis points, trading at 3.59%.
—Darla Mercado
What the Fed decision means for consumer borrowing and savings rates
At a time when many U.S. households are concerned about affordability, the central bank’s decision means consumers may have to wait a little longer for relief from high borrowing costs — at least when it comes to .
Generally, short-term rates, like credit cards, are closely pegged to the fed’s benchmark. Longer-term rates, like mortgages, are more influenced by inflation and other economic factors.
While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, those yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged will keep savings rates above the rate of inflation, which is a rare win.
— Jessica Dickler
Allianz Trade sees just one rate cut in 2026
Though the market anticipates up to two rate cuts this year, Allianz Trade sees just one reduction in 2026 as the Federal Reserve contends with economic pressures.
“[Federal Open Market Committee] policymakers are divided on the balance of risks between weak hiring and persistent inflation,” Maxime Darmet, Allianz Trade’s senior economist for the U.S., France and the U.K., said in a written commentary.
He said that growing evidence that the rollout of artificial intelligence is powering GDP growth, along with a stabilizing labor market, should convince Fed policymakers to keep rates near their current levels for the remainder of the year. The current interest rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%.
“We continue to expect only one 25bps rate cut in 2026, most likely in June,” he added. “The economy can clearly operate with Fed rates at 3.5%. Lower rates would be unwarranted as they would reignite inflation risks.”
—Darla Mercado
Rick Rieder emerges as frontrunner to replace Powell in prediction markets
Rick Rieder, BlackRock senior managing director, chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, speaking at the Delivering Alpha conference in New York City on Sept. 28, 2023.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
BlackRock’s fixed-income chief Rick Rieder has emerged as the frontrunner in prediction markets to succeed Powell as Fed chair when his term ends in May. Traders on Kalshi are giving the Wall Street veteran a 43% chance, well ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at 29%.
Rieder’s odds rose after Trump called him “very impressive” in a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum. A separate Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter, said White House officials generally view Rieder favorably.
By contrast, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has seen his odds fall to 8% on Kalshi, after Trump told reporters he would miss Hassett at the NEC and would prefer he remain in the role.
— Yun Li
What to expect at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting
The Federal Reserve will likely keep its key interest rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday.
While the decision itself won’t provide much action, traders are going to keep a close ear on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, which kicks off at 2:30 p.m. ET. They’ll be seeking clues on where policy might be heading longer term.
Traders will also have another development on their minds: the fireworks surrounding the central bank in Washington. President Donald Trump recently told CNBC that he may have winnowed down the list of potential Fed chair candidates to just one individual.
Read more here from CNBC’s Jeff Cox on what to expect from the end of the Fed’s January meeting.
—Darla Mercado
