Why Carrier Global (CARR) Is Up 5.9% After Buybacks, Shelf Filing And New AI Tool Integration

• Carrier Global Corporation recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$4,837 million and net income of US$53 million, while also completing a multi-year share repurchase totaling 114,888,374 shares for US$6.77 billion under its 2021 authorization.
• Alongside softer residential and light commercial HVAC demand, the company filed a US$3.06 billion shelf registration for over 50 million common shares and introduced a generative AI feature, “Tell Me More,” within its Abound platform to support building operations teams.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll examine how weaker residential and light commercial trends, alongside data center and AI initiatives, shape Carrier’s investment narrative.

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What Is Carrier Global’s Investment Narrative?

To own Carrier today, you need to be comfortable with a mixed picture: softer residential and light commercial HVAC demand alongside healthy interest in data center and AI-enabled building solutions. The latest quarter showed lower revenue and net income, yet the company finished a multi-year US$6.77 billion buyback and then quickly filed a US$3.06 billion shelf registration for over 50 million shares. That pivot from aggressive repurchases to potential new issuance may matter for short term sentiment, especially with the stock having rebounded sharply in recent weeks and trading only modestly below consensus fair value. At the same time, the new “Tell Me More” AI feature in Abound reinforces Carrier’s push into software and services, but it does not offset near term exposure to weaker residential trends or a high debt load.

However, one recent capital decision could surprise investors who focus on per share metrics.

Carrier Global’s shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 6%. Find out what it’s worth.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five Simply Wall St Community members place Carrier’s fair value anywhere between US$26.44 and US$72.18, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. Set against softer residential demand and the new US$3.06 billion shelf registration, these differing opinions underline why you may want to compare multiple perspectives on where Carrier’s fundamentals could take it next.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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