Hecla Mining (HL) Valuation Check As Silver Shortfalls And Higher 2026 Guidance Draw Investor Focus

Hecla Mining (HL) is back in focus as silver enters a sixth straight year of production shortfalls versus demand, and the company outlines higher 2025 output, along with fresh guidance and Quebec asset plans.

See our latest analysis for Hecla Mining.

That backdrop of tight silver supply has been playing out against sharp swings in Hecla’s share price. The 1 day share price return shows an 11.82% decline and the 30 day share price return shows a 14.07% decline, yet the 90 day share price return of 43.08% and the 1 year total shareholder return of 228.67% suggest momentum has been strong despite recent volatility around production news, Quebec asset plans and upcoming earnings.

If you are looking beyond Hecla and want more ideas tied to precious metals, it might be worth checking out our 7 top silver producer stocks identified by the Simply Wall St screener.

With Hecla now trading at US$20.89, sitting below an average analyst target of US$26.65 yet carrying an intrinsic value estimate that implies a premium, you have to ask: is this a fresh entry point, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 73.9% Undervalued

At $20.89, Hecla Mining is priced well below a narrative fair value of $80. According to RockeTeller, that gap hinges on an aggressive precious metals scenario and sizable free cash flow assumptions.

Conclusion: If silver reaches $100/oz and gold reaches $4,000/oz, Hecla Mining’s estimated stock price could be approximately $80/share. This assumes continued strong production and successful project development.

Additional Considerations:

• Debt Management: Leveraging higher silver prices effectively.
• Permitting: Success in permitting Montana projects could boost production.
• Market Sentiment: Global economic conditions and silver demand will impact valuations.

This scenario represents a bullish case for Hecla Mining with significant upside potential tied to rising silver and gold prices.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what supports an $80 fair value when the share price is a fraction of that? The narrative leans on higher metals prices, larger output, and a rich cash flow multiple. Want to see how those ingredients mix together and what kind of growth path they imply for Hecla in this scenario? The full story lays out the assumptions in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this $80 narrative relies on very high silver and gold prices and assumes that Hecla maintains strong production and secures key permits without major setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this Hecla Mining narrative.

Another View: What The P/E Ratio Is Saying

The $80 fair value hinges on very bullish metals assumptions. The market is telling a different story. At a P/E of 70.5x versus 26.4x for the US Metals and Mining industry and a 31.5x fair ratio, Hecla screens as expensive. This raises the question of how much good news is already priced in.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Hecla Mining Narrative

If you look at these numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom Hecla view in minutes and see how your story compares, then Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hecla Mining research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Hecla has you thinking about how to position your portfolio, do not stop here. The right mix of new ideas can make a big difference.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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