Should Merck’s (MRK) New STK-012 Keytruda Lung Cancer Combo Strategy Require Action From Investors?

• In late February 2026, Synthekine announced a collaboration and supply agreement with Merck to test STK-012 alongside Keytruda and chemotherapy in the ongoing global Phase 2 SYNERGY-101 trial for first-line, PD-L1 negative nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer.
• This agreement underlines Merck’s push to extend Keytruda’s reach in difficult-to-treat lung cancer while sharing development risk and keeping full rights to its own therapy.
• We’ll now examine how Merck’s expanded Keytruda combination work in PD-L1 negative lung cancer could reshape the company’s investment narrative.

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Merck Investment Narrative Recap

To own Merck today, you need to believe that its broad late‑stage pipeline can progressively reduce reliance on Keytruda while offsetting pressure on GARDASIL and pricing. The Synthekine collaboration expands Merck’s reach in PD‑L1 negative lung cancer, but as an early Phase 2 study it does not materially change the near‑term focus, which still centers on how effectively new launches and late‑stage assets can bridge the coming Keytruda patent expiry.

The most relevant recent development here is Merck’s decision to split its Human Health business into separate Oncology and Specialty, Pharma & Infectious Diseases units. This reorganization frames the Keytruda franchise and broader oncology pipeline as a distinct pillar, while grouping vaccines, cardiometabolic, HIV and RSV products together as a second growth engine. For investors, that sharper structure could make it easier to track how new oncology combinations like SYNERGY‑101 contribute alongside non‑oncology growth drivers.

Yet, even as Merck leans into new cancer combinations, investors should not overlook the risk that Keytruda’s post‑2028 patent cliff could …

Read the full narrative on Merck (it’s free!)

Merck’s narrative projects $72.0 billion revenue and $24.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $7.9 billion from $16.4 billion today.

Uncover how Merck’s forecasts yield a $124.88 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming Merck could reach about US$76.9 billion in revenue and US$27.8 billion in earnings by 2028, so if you are weighing the new lung cancer data against those higher expectations, it is worth asking whether this kind of Keytruda‑heavy optimism or the more cautious focus on the patent cliff better fits your own view, knowing that both storylines may evolve as this latest trial and other pipeline programs mature.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Merck – why the stock might be worth 33% less than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
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Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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