A Look At National Bank Holdings’ Valuation After Earnings, Higher Charge Offs And New Capital Returns

Earnings and Credit Costs Take Center Stage for National Bank Holdings

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) has drawn investor attention after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that showed lower net income, higher charge offs, and simultaneous moves to increase its dividend and authorize new share repurchases.

See our latest analysis for National Bank Holdings.

Since the earnings release and capital return updates on January 27, National Bank Holdings’ recent 7 day and 90 day share price returns of 3.91% and 12.38% suggest improving momentum. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 1.13% decline and 5 year total shareholder return of 33.57% point to a mixed but positive longer term picture.

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With earnings under pressure, rising charge offs, a higher dividend and a fresh US$100 million buyback, is National Bank Holdings quietly trading below its intrinsic value, or is the market already pricing in any future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.7% Undervalued

With National Bank Holdings last closing at $41.75 against a most-followed fair value estimate of $45.75, the current price sits below that narrative view and puts the focus firmly on what is driving that gap.

The successful launch of the 2UniFi platform, with positive early feedback and plans for further feature expansion (including fee-based membership offerings and integrated fintech services for SMBs), positions the company to capitalize on the shift toward digital banking and technology-driven financial solutions, potentially driving incremental noninterest income and expanding high-margin fee revenue streams.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue mix and earnings trajectory sit behind that fair value number? The narrative focuses on rising fee income, expanding margins, and a future earnings profile that looks quite different from today.

Result: Fair Value of $45.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, concentration in trucking, agriculture and commercial real estate, plus any stumble with the 2UniFi rollout, could quickly challenge that 8.7% undervalued view.

Find out about the key risks to this National Bank Holdings narrative.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Paints a Tougher Picture

So far, the story has leaned on fair value and narrative upside, but the plain P/E ratio tells you something different. At 17.2x earnings, National Bank Holdings trades not only above the US Banks industry at 12x, but also above its peer average of 14.3x and the fair ratio of 14.9x.

In simple terms, the current price already carries a premium to both sector norms and the level our fair ratio suggests the market could move toward over time. That raises a practical question for you as an investor: is this a quality premium you are comfortable paying, or valuation risk you would rather avoid?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own National Bank Holdings Narrative

If you look at these numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own view against the data, you can build a complete story for National Bank Holdings in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your National Bank Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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