AI trading could face headwinds next year.
①MRB Partners has warned that AI investment may encounter a bottleneck in 2026 as spending normalizes and market leadership shifts; ②The firm downgraded its rating on U.S. technology stocks to ‘underweight,’ pointing out that the tech sector needs to overcome high profitability hurdles, with growing investor skepticism over unrestricted capital expenditure commitments.
Cailian Press report on December 24 (edited by Liu Rui) — Following Micron Technology’s explosive earnings release last week, AI-related trading in U.S. equities regained momentum. On Tuesday Eastern Time, “AI darling” NVIDIA surged over 3%, closing at its highest level since November 17, with its total market value rebounding above $4.6 trillion. Meanwhile, Broadcom, Google, and Amazon drove the Nasdaq to outperform the Dow and S&P, while the “fear index” VIX continued to decline, closing at 14, its lowest point in a year.
However, macroeconomic research firm MRB Partners has not eased its concerns about U.S. tech stock trading. They warned that AI investment could “encounter a bottleneck” in 2026 as spending normalizes and market leadership begins to shift.
AI Trading May Face Bottlenecks Next Year
“AI investments will face bottlenecks next year,” MRB Partners stated in their latest report, downgrading their rating on U.S. tech stocks from ‘neutral’ to ‘underweight’ and warning that the sector is “vulnerable to profit-taking pressures.”
Although the AI theme remains central to market narratives, MRB cautioned that “the tech sector must overcome significant profitability challenges,” especially in areas where valuations and earnings expectations are already stretched.
In recent times, major tech giants have poured hundreds of billions into the AI field, driving the primary rally in U.S. AI tech stocks. However, MRB believes this growth rate is unlikely to be sustained, as investors have begun to “question the unrestricted capital expenditure commitments related to AI infrastructure development.”
Against this backdrop, the firm warned that “the market increasingly needs clear evidence that these investments can deliver sufficient returns. This trend may curb spending in the AI sector, adversely impacting both the tech industry and broader equity indices.”
While AI-related capital expenditures will continue to provide critical support for corporate growth, MRB Partners advised equity investors to “diversify their portfolios, reducing concentrated bets on large-cap tech and AI sectors,” and prepare for broad-based earnings growth rather than solely relying on the few market leaders that have dominated this year.
Recommendation: Avoid Overconcentration in Few AI Leaders
They believe that industrial, financial, and non-technology cyclical sectors are likely to become the preferred investment areas next year, as these industries are expected to benefit from ‘a long-term anticipated recovery in manufacturing’ and ‘an increase in non-artificial intelligence capital expenditure incentivized by the Trump administration’s tax incentives,’ without facing the same concentration risks as large technology companies.
Transactions in the artificial intelligence sector may also gradually mature as investors reassess ‘suppliers providing equipment to data centers.’ MRB Partners stated that as market enthusiasm for artificial intelligence cools, these suppliers could face ‘greater volatility,’ even if overall capital expenditure improves.
This could shift artificial intelligence from a one-way beta trade to a market more reliant on stock pickers, where balance sheet strength and sustainable profitability matter more than revenue narratives.
As 2025 draws to a close, MRB Partners believes that although the macroeconomic backdrop remains ‘favorable for equities,’ ‘returns in 2026 may be relatively subdued, with significant adjustment risks along the way,’ especially if ‘the development of the artificial intelligence theme encounters obstacles.’
The firm stated that the leading sectors in the next bull market are more likely to be industries benefiting from AI-driven capital expenditures and policy support, rather than purely speculative leaders that dominated this year’s stock market rally.
