Asian stocks set to start 2026 tepidly after recent drop

(Jan 2): Asian stocks look set to begin trading cautiously after ending 2025 on a subdued note, following an otherwise buoyant year for equities.

Equity-index futures for the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% in early Asian trading, while Australian shares opened slightly weaker. Spot gold and silver both advanced, while cryptocurrencies were a touch stronger. Australia’s sovereign bonds dropped.

Trading is likely to be thin across the region with several markets shut for holidays, including Japan and China, while South Korea has a delayed start. The S&P 500 extended a stretch of post-Christmas losses on Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 had a fourth day of declines. Even so, both indexes have posted double digit gains for three consecutive years.

Precious metals also closed out the year on a down note, despite posting their best year since the 1970s. The dollar recorded its worst year since 2017, with investors saying more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts. US Treasuries posted their best year since 2020.

Despite the recent pullback, global stocks posted their strongest year since 2019, as expectations for higher earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence supported investor demand. Even so, uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary policy and elevated valuations remain key risks.

“The end of 2025 was a fizzer in global markets but it doesn’t detract from the fact it was a very good year for investors,” Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “Naturally, the start of the new year comes with the question everyone asks moving from one year to the next: will this continue? The consensus is that, yes, it will.”

Wall Street is now well aware of the risks surrounding the AI boom. But when it comes to the year ahead, few advocate walking away from what they describe as a “revolutionary technology.”

The economic impact of AI was a top story in 2025 and will remain so in 2026, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists including Joseph Briggs and Andrew Tilton, wrote in a note Wednesday.

While AI-related capex has clearly surged, the impact on GDP has been minimal and the AI spending boom doesn’t look particularly large when appropriately benchmarked against past technology investment cycles, they wrote.

“We remain optimistic on global growth in 2026, largely because our growth forecasts are well above consensus in the US and China,” they said.

Market research firm Bespoke Investment Group cautioned against expecting solid market performance during the first trading day of the new year.

Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to kick off a new year has been a 0.3% drop, with gains less than half the time, according to a note by Bespoke. The stock market has also traded lower on the first trading day of the each of the past three years, the note said.

Investors have at least one reason to be optimistic heading into the new year. MSCI’s gauge for global stocks has climbed an average 1.4% in January over the last 10 years and advanced in six of those instances, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

In economic data Wednesday, applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to one of the lowest levels this year.

Initial claims decreased by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended Dec. 27, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 218,000 applications.

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