Ceasefire rally; China GDP and US earnings ahead | Market Navigator
The week ahead
This week’s attention centres on a dense slate of Chinese economic data, with releases spanning trade, housing, fixed asset investment and first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). China’s Q1 GDP will be the first reading since Beijing set a 4.5%–5% growth target for 2025 — the most modest on record since the early 1990s. The deliberately wider band grants local governments flexibility to structurally address excess industrial capacity and fiscal sustainability, without the burden of an overly ambitious headline target.
The major cities house price index warrants close attention. While recent data on inflation, retail sales and manufacturing have shown improvement, property remains a persistent drag. February’s reading was the weakest in eight months, and with residential real estate accounting for roughly 70% of urban household wealth, a sustained recovery in domestic demand is difficult to envision without meaningful price stabilisation.
In Australia, employment data will inform expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. Evidence of continued labour market tightness could raise the probability of a third interest rates hike this year.
On the corporate front, Q1 earnings season opens with major US banks, ASML, TSMC and Netflix among the first to report. The major US bank results will offer an early read on how financial institutions are navigating slower global growth induced by the Middle East conflict — particularly through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, loan loss provisions and trading revenues. ASML and TSMC‘s results will be scrutinised for signals on the durability of AI-driven capital expenditure. According to FactSet, analysts anticipate 13.2% YoY earnings growth for Q1 — revised upward from 12.8% at end-2025, driven largely by energy, technology and financials. However, estimates for the remaining eight S&P 500 sectors have been trimmed, and given recent market fragility, any disappointment from high-profile names risks triggering renewed selling pressure.
