Corn Futures Fall as Energy Prices Tumble — Daily Grain Highlights
By Kirk Maltais
–Corn for July delivery fell 1.1% to $4.71 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, following lower oil and natural gas futures after President Trump halted attacks on Iranian power plants for the next five days.
–Wheat for July delivery fell 1% to $6.01 1/2 a bushel.
–Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.3% to $11.79 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Food vs. Fuel: Oil and natural gas fell in reaction to President Trump’s social media post that the U.S. would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants for the next five days, calling for negotiations with Iran to end the war. This in turn weighed on grains, which have been supported by oil due to the link between petroleum and renewable fuels. “Energy markets have been leading grains markets and the future price action of grains is likely, at least near-term, closely tied with energy markets,” EmpowerAg’s Brady Huck said.
Major Distraction: Next week’s Prospective Plantings report from the USDA is usually a center of focus for grain traders ahead of the start of planting season in the Corn Belt. However, trader focus this year remains primarily on the war in Iran. “The grains and commodities will continue to be at the mercy of crude and the Middle East situation; we’ve still got more than a week until March acreage and stocks,” StoneX’s Matt Zeller said in a note. The weekly Crop Progress report is also set to resume beginning next month, which will provide fresh data for grain futures to move on outside of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
INSIGHT
Looking for an Uptick: AgMarket.net said in a forecast of next week’s Prospective Plantings report from the USDA that it expects the acreage for both corn and soybeans this spring to be higher than what the USDA last projected in February. The firm said that it now expects farmers will have planted 94.4 million acres of corn, up from the USDA’s prior projection of 94 million acres. Soybean acreage is projected at 86.1 million acres, up from 85 million acres projected by the USDA. The revision in corn comes even as the conflict with Iran constricts fertilizer availability. Corn is the most fertilizer-intensive out of the three major row crops.
World Surplus: The war with Iran has added a risk premium into CBOT grain futures, but futures may trend back toward the downside once the war ends, AgResource said in a note. “Oversupplies of world grain have not changed, and the seizing up of the ocean freight market, with costs running 30-60% above pre-war levels, is slowing world grain trade,” said the firm. AgResource adds that in the case of soybeans, China appears to have stockpiled plenty of imported soybeans–which means it has less of a need to go to the world market with any urgency.
Beat for the Week: Export inspections of U.S. grains for the week ended March 19 exceeded totals from the prior week, according to the USDA. U.S. export inspections for corn totaled 1.7 million metric tons, soybean inspections were 1.1 million tons and wheat inspections were 458,411 tons. For corn and soybeans, this beat inspections compared with both last week and the same time a year ago. For wheat the total was more than seen in the prior week, but less than it was a year ago.
AHEAD
–Smithfield Foods will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday
–The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
–The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-23-26 1517ET
