Did Prem Watsa’s 44% Stake Cut Just Recast Orla Mining’s (TSX:OLA) Investment Narrative?

• In Prem Watsa’s latest fourth-quarter 2025 13F filing, he reported cutting his Orla Mining stake by 25 million shares, a 44% reduction that lowered the position’s weight in his portfolio by 13.01 percentage points.
• Even after this large trim, Orla Mining still makes up 20.33% of Watsa’s portfolio, underscoring how concentrated his exposure to the company remains.
• Next, we’ll examine how Prem Watsa’s large position reduction reshapes Orla Mining’s existing investment narrative and risk-reward profile.

Outshine the giants: these 25 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.

Orla Mining Investment Narrative Recap

To own Orla Mining, you need to believe in its ability to grow production across Mexico, Canada, and the US while keeping costs and permitting risks under control. Prem Watsa’s 44% position cut is a clear signal from a major shareholder, but it does not, by itself, change the near term focus on safe, reliable output and managing regulatory and operational risk at key assets like Camino Rojo and the advancing South Railroad project.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the optimized feasibility study and board approval to advance the South Railroad gold project. That decision formally moves a major US growth asset into detailed engineering and execution, reinforcing South Railroad as a central production and diversification catalyst. Against that backdrop, Watsa’s reduced exposure sits alongside a company that is still committing capital and technical resources to lift future output and broaden its operating base.

Yet despite Orla’s progress, investors should be aware that permitting and construction timing at South Railroad could still…

Read the full narrative on Orla Mining (it’s free!)

Orla Mining’s narrative projects $1.4 billion revenue and $721.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 31.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $696.3 million earnings increase from $25.6 million today.

Uncover how Orla Mining’s forecasts yield a CA$29.90 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about US$1.4 billion and earnings of roughly US$825.7 million by 2028, and Watsa’s large trim may reinforce their concerns about execution risk at South Railroad and the strain of funding multiple projects at once. Their view shows how sharply opinions can differ, and why you should weigh how this new ownership shift could reshape both the growth story and the downside case.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Orla Mining – why the stock might be worth 20% less than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Orla Mining research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Orla Mining research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Orla Mining’s overall financial health at a glance.

Seeking Other Investments?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com