Earnings Beat: Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional S.A. (BVMF:CSED3) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to R$5.51 in the past week. Revenues were R$2.8b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of R$0.81 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional’s four analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$2.98b in 2026. This would be a credible 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 25% to R$1.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$3.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.00 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional’s earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional

There’s been no major changes to the consensus price target of R$8.60, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock’s valuation. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional at R$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$6.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.4% annually. So it’s pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. We have estimates – from multiple Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Cruzeiro do Sul Educacional you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.