EMEA Morning Briefing : Stock Futures Mixed at Start of 2026
MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Manufacturing PMI data for EU, U.K., France, Germany, Italy; EU money supply in the euro area; U.K. Nationwide House Price Index; no major corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European stock futures were mixed early Friday; Asian stock benchmarks were higher. The dollar weakened. Gold and oil rose.
Equities:
European futures were trading mixed as they kicked off 2026 stock market trading. Dow Jones futures were modestly higher Thursday night, after the New Year’s Day holiday. U.S. stocks had limped to the finish line on Wednesday, with all three major indexes closing lower to cap a third straight blockbuster year for markets.
Investors are hoping for another year of stock-market gains in 2026, though many expect a more modest pace. If you’re looking for signs of dangerous euphoria across the markets, they are easy to find. “We believe current equity valuations have become broadly untethered from fundamentals,” warn managers James Hollier and James Kovacs at investment firm Silver Beech.
“People will be looking for other ways to make money where there’s momentum, away from tech,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “We’re very bullish about the rotation.”
On tap Friday are manufacturing PMI data in Europe.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar was weaker early Friday. Markets are pricing in about 60bps worth of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and none in 2027, MUFG Bank’s Lloyd Chan said. This gives scope for more dovish repricing if hiring conditions in the U.S. deteriorate further, the senior currency analyst said.
MUFG Bank’s Lee Hardman also sees the possibility of further weakness. The dollar regained some ground in 2018, rising 4.4%, but is unlikely to experience a similar recovery in the year ahead, Hardman said. “Yield differentials between the U.S. and other major economies should continue to narrow as the Federal Reserve cuts rates further, while other G-10 central banks have already reached the end of their easing cycles.”
Bonds:
The gap between the short-dated and long-dated gilt yields widened in 2025. The Bank of England cut interest rates four times in 2025, bringing the bank rate to 3.75% and helping to push two-year gilt yields lower. In contrast, long-term gilt yields climbed, partly due to U.K. fiscal concerns and partly mirroring rises in their U.S. and Japanese counterparts amid worries about high government debt levels.
Energy:
Oil ticked up in early Asian trade. For 2026, prices could stay above $50/bbl but remain near a five-year low, said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates. The Wall Street Journal reported a rise in oil stored in oil tankers, which is expected to keep prices soft until demand picks up in the spring, Navellier said.
Metals:
Gold rose. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates flared this week, when the kingdom warned its Gulf rival against endangering its security and said it would take all necessary measures to counter the threat.
“In the Middle East, the situation remains fragile, with risks of escalation still present,” DHF Capital’s Bas Kooijman said. Geopolitical risks continue to provide strong safe-haven demand, underpinning the precious metal, the CEO and asset manager added.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. Slashes Proposed Tariffs on Italian Pasta
The U.S. has stepped back from imposing trade-killing duties on Italian pasta makers, meaning that Italian-made pasta will most likely continue to be available in U.S. stores.
Previously, the U.S. Commerce Department had said it would slap antidumping duties of 92% on Italy’s main pasta exporters as soon as January-a measure that Italian pasta makers said would force them to pull out of the U.S. market. Italy’s government and the affected companies have been lobbying the Trump administration for weeks to revise the decision.
Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets
President Trump delayed by a year tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, the latest move to walk back levies in the face of consumer frustration over high prices.
The increased tariffs, announced in September to target lumber-based products, were set to go into effect on Jan. 1, according to a White House statement published on New Year’s Eve.
The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
Greg Abel’s time has come, and there’s a $358 billion question on investors’ minds: What will the new chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway do with all of that cash?
As Warren Buffett’s handpicked successor, Abel faces several challenges as he takes the reins today. For one, he isn’t Warren Buffett, who became a household name as the leader of one of America’s most-admired companies. Shareholders don’t know if Abel can channel the stock-picking magic of his predecessor, who earned the nickname the Oracle of Omaha.
Iranian Protesters Killed as Unrest Turns Violent on Fifth Day
Violence erupted between Iranian protesters and police during unrest on Thursday, leaving at least five dead on the fifth day of demonstrations over the country’s economic crisis.
Three people were killed during a demonstration outside a police station in Lorestan Province in western Iran, according to Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Another two people were killed during a protest near the governor’s residence in Lordegan, another western Iranian province, Fars said.
How Kraft Heinz Lost Its Lock on Mac and Cheese-and American Shoppers
Kraft Heinz has all but owned the supermarket macaroni-and-cheese aisle for decades. So when the first boxes of an upscale brand called Goodles landed on store shelves in 2022, the company wasn’t especially worried.
A call went out in the Chicago headquarters to try it out. Employees bought a few boxes, cooked up the gooey meals in a corporate kitchen and dug in. The verdict: Goodles “Cheddy Mac” tasted good. Other flavors, the testers decided, needed work. The noodle texture was a bit iffy.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Friday
01:01/IRL: Dec Ireland Manufacturing PMI
06:00/NED: Dec Netherlands Manufacturing PMI
07:00/UK: Dec Nationwide House Price Index
07:00/TUR: Dec Turkey Manufacturing PMI
08:00/POL: Dec Poland Manufacturing PMI
08:15/SPN: Dec Spain Manufacturing PMI
08:30/CZE: Dec Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI
08:45/ITA: Dec Italy Manufacturing PMI
08:50/FRA: Dec France Manufacturing PMI
08:55/GER: Dec Germany Manufacturing PMI
09:00/EU: Nov Monetary developments in the euro area (M3)
09:00/GRE: Dec Greece Manufacturing PMI
09:00/EU: Dec Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
09:30/UK: Dec S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
10:00/CYP: Nov Retail trade
10:00/GRE: Nov Labour Force Survey
16:59/AUT: Dec Unemployment figures
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-02-26 0015ET
