Endeavour Mining (TSX:EDV) Valuation Check After Gold Price Rally On Geopolitical Tensions

Endeavour Mining (TSX:EDV) has jumped into focus after a sharp rise in gold prices, with its shares gaining 5% as heightened geopolitical tension around the reported capture of Venezuela’s president pushed investors toward safe haven exposure.

See our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining.

Beyond today’s move, Endeavour Mining’s share price return has been strong over longer periods, with a 90 day gain of 24.94% and a one year total shareholder return of 185.38%. This suggests momentum has been building as investors reassess gold exposure and company specific risks.

If this spike in gold exposure has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with aerospace and defense stocks as another way to think about risk and resilience.

With CA$3,900.5m of revenue, CA$492.2m of net income, a value score of 4 and an estimated 44.13% intrinsic discount, Endeavour looks cheap on paper. The key question is whether this represents a genuine entry point or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.8% Undervalued

With Endeavour Mining last closing at CA$72.50 against a narrative fair value of CA$77, the current price sits a touch below that central estimate and anchors a detailed set of assumptions on growth, margins, and risk.

The consolidated analyst price target for Endeavour Mining has edged higher to C$77 and 4,900 GBp, reflecting recent target increases from C$73 and C$70, alongside a small trim from 5,000 GBp as analysts weigh higher long term gold price assumptions against the company’s concentrated West African risk profile.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans on a sharp step up in earnings, wider margins, and a richer future P/E to tie it all together. Curious which specific profit and revenue paths have to line up for that fair value to hold? The full set of projections lays those expectations out in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $77 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this story can change quickly if West African political or regulatory shocks disrupt operations, or if higher royalties and ESG costs squeeze margins and cash flow.

Find out about the key risks to this Endeavour Mining narrative.

Another View: Market Multiple Check

Our fair value narrative points to Endeavour Mining trading below intrinsic value, yet the current 25.6x P/E is higher than the Canadian Metals and Mining industry at 23.6x. It also sits well below peers at 65.2x and a fair ratio of 31.6x, which flags both valuation support and some multiple risk if sentiment cools. How comfortable are you paying a premium to the sector even with that cushion to the fair ratio?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Endeavour Mining Narrative

If parts of this story do not quite fit how you see the company, you can stress test every assumption yourself and build a fresh view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Endeavour Mining research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Endeavour Mining has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop here. Broadening your watchlist now could help you spot the next idea before everyone else.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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