Ford Q4 Earnings Ahead: Is F Stock a Buy Before Results? – February 9, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Ford’s Q4 EPS is seen at 17 cents, down 56% year over year, and revenues are projected to fall 8%.
- F faces e-mobility headwinds after tax credit withdrawal, with EV restructuring charges of $19.5B.
- Ford’s truck, hybrid, and Ford Pro strength lifted Q4 sales by 2.7%, with hybrid volumes up 17.6% y/y.
Ford (F – Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results tomorrow, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 17 cents and $41.2 billion, respectively.
Earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved up by 10 cents over the past 30 days. However, the bottom line depicts a year-over-year decline of 56%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests an 8% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
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For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s automotive revenues is pegged at $173 billion, suggesting a modest increase of roughly 1% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.31, calling for 39% year-over-year contraction. However, the consensus mark for 2026 EPS points to 35.2% growth from the projected 2025 levels.
Notably, Ford surpassed earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters. And our proven model predicts an earnings beat for the company this time around as well.
The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Ford has an Earnings ESP of +16.06% and a Zacks Rank #1.
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You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors at Play
Post the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, Ford’s EV sales tanked more than 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025 amid a sharp fall in F-150 Lightning volumes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for F’s Model-e unit loss before interest and taxes is pegged at $1.4 billion.
Other auto giants like General Motors (GM – Free Report) and Tesla (TSLA – Free Report) also posted massive declines in EV sales for the three months ending in December. General Motors and Tesla’s EV sales dropped 43% and 16%, respectively.
Notably, Ford notified that it expects around $19.5 billion in special charges, mostly in the fourth quarter, as it restructures its U.S. EV strategy. Importantly, about $5.5 billion of this will hit cash flows, mainly through 2026 and 2027.
Additionally, Ford expects to take a $600 million pre-tax charge in the quarter related to pension and postretirement benefit remeasurements, which will reduce net income by roughly $500 million.
On the positive side, higher year-over-year deliveries of Ford’s trucks and Mustang cars boosted overall volumes, offsetting EV weakness. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ford sales rose 2.7% to more than 545,200 vehicles, while market share improved 0.9%, driven by high demand for hybrids. Hybrid sales grew 17.6% year over year to 55,374 units.
Additionally, continued strength in the Ford Pro unit is expected to boost results. Paid software subscriptions have been rising, and the trend is expected to have continued in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Ford Pro unit is pegged at roughly $15 billion. The consensus mark for the segment’s EBIT is $1.4 billion.
Ford’s Price Performance & Valuation
Over the past six months, shares of F have gained 24%, outperforming the industry and Tesla, while underperforming its closest peer, General Motors.
6-Month Price Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
F appears undervalued now. The company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.32, way lower than the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Ford Stock is Worth Buying Now
Ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings, Ford’s investment case looks compelling, especially in a challenging auto backdrop. With EV adoption slowing and regulatory priorities shifting in the United States, Ford is taking a pragmatic approach by reallocating capital toward what is more in demand, i.e., hybrids, gas-powered vehicles and more affordable EVs. This strategy will help the company protect margins while maintaining volume, rather than chasing growth at the expense of profitability.
Hybrids, in particular, are becoming a meaningful buffer against weak pure-EV demand. Ford sold a record 228,072 hybrid vehicles in 2025, including plug-in models, representing a solid 21.7% year-over-year increase.
Another major pillar of the bull case is Ford Pro. The commercial vehicle business continues to deliver steady growth, backed by strong order visibility and a lineup led by F-150, Super Duty and Transit. More importantly, Ford Pro’s expanding software and services ecosystem is emerging as a durable profit driver. Subscription revenues, resilient margins and a broader service footprint position the segment as a long-term earnings catalyst.
Beyond autos, Ford is planting seeds for future growth. The launch of a battery energy storage systems business targets rising demand from data centers and grid infrastructure, while the company’s autonomy roadmap includes Level 3, eyes-off highway driving by 2028 on its next-generation EV platform. Strong liquidity and an attractive dividend further support the story.
With the company poised to extend its earnings beat streak this time around, the stock could see further upside. Backed by strong fundamentals, Ford looks like a solid buy at current levels.
