Gold & Silver Price Forecast: Tariffs & Fed Impact: Rediff Moneynews
Gold and silver prices to stay firm amid tariff verdict, Fed decision. Union Budget 2026 impact, market analysis, and price surge details.
The focus will also shift to the Union Budget 2026, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, which could influence domestic bullion sentiment through changes in import duties and fiscal measures, they added.
“The bullion prices are expected to continue their positive momentum and corrective moves should be a buying opportunity, as focus again will remain on the US Supreme Court hearing in the Trump’s trade tariffs case,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.
Investors will closely watch inflation numbers from the US, India, and Germany, along with trade and investment figures from China, and key commentary from Federal Reserve officials, he added.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures surged Rs 13,520 or 9.5 per cent, over the past week. It hit an all-time high of Rs 1,59,226 per 10 grams on Friday.
Meanwhile, silver registered a steeper rally, soaring by Rs 46,937, or 16.3 per cent, during the week to breach the Rs 3 lakh per kilogram mark for the first time ever.
“On the MCX, gold prices rallied from Rs 1.43 lakh per 10 grams to near Rs 1.6 lakh grams during the week, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions which drove safe-haven demand,” Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research, Non – Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One, said.
He added that the US decision to send naval assets towards Iran and impose sanctions on Iranian oil networks further added a risk premium to markets.
In the international market, gold futures on Comex gained USD 384.3, or 8.4 per cent, last week, touching a record of USD 4,991.40 per ounce on Friday.
Meanwhile, silver prices gained USD 12.7, or 14.4 per cent, to cross the historic USD 100 per ounce mark for the first time, before settling at USD 101.33 per ounce.
“Silver breached USD 100 for the first time while gold was just shy of some points from USD 5,000 on Comex, prices remained volatile over the week, oscillating between fresh highs and bouts of profit-taking amid fast-evolving geopolitical and macro cues,” Manav Modi, Analyst – Commodities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.
Modi noted that demand for bullion surged after US President Donald Trump announced a 10 per cent tariff on the UK and some EU nations, rising to 25 per cent from June unless a deal is reached over Greenland, a move seen as strategically confrontational toward NATO allies.
He said that physical demand dynamics also reinforced the rally, as the US Mint halted silver coin sales and later repriced them above USD 160 due to persistent supply tightness and strong retail demand.
However, prices later trimmed gains after Trump’s remarks in Davos signalled a moderation in rhetoric, alongside a broader pro-US narrative citing fiscal deficit reduction, stronger growth prospects, and strategic frameworks involving Greenland and Venezuela, which lent marginal support to the dollar and risk sentiment, Modi added.
Mer of JM Financial Services, said “Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold this month, though markets continue to price in at least two cuts in 2026 amid a fragile labor backdrop.”
ETF investors have continued to add gold and silver to their portfolios ahead of the US Supreme Court verdict on trade tariffs expected next week, he added.
Domestic commodity markets will remain shut on Monday on account of the 77th Republic Day. Trading activity will resume on Tuesday.
