Mining Stocks

Graphite Mining Stocks Are Flying Amid China Tensions, Battery Boom

Following the Nobel Prize for graphene’s discovery in 2010, the gee-whiz nanomaterial has been lauded as a “wonder material” with endless theoretical applications, including graphene super batteries, leading to a “sugar rush” of investor excitement and high valuations of graphene makers such as Applied Graphene Materials Plc. (OTCQB:APGMF) and First Graphene Limited (OTCMKTS:FGPHF).

Unfortunately, the actual pace of commercial adoption has been much slower than initially anticipated, causing huge market corrections as expectations realigned with reality.

Graphene is essentially a single, one-atom-thick layer of graphite, and has fascinated the world of science for years due to properties such as being incredibly strong, superconductive and relatively cheap, whereas graphite is the slippery, coal-like stuff used to make pencils. And, it appears the markets are now willing to bet on the more common, less fanciful of the two materials, thanks to the ongoing energy transition and tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s largest supplier of graphite.

Shares of Titan Mining Corp. (NYSE American: TII) have surged roughly 870% year to date, lifting the stock to record highs as investors scramble for U.S.-linked exposure to graphite amid rising trade tensions with China. The rally, however, is being driven more by policy headlines and supply-chain anxiety than by established output. In October, the company said it plans to begin natural graphite production at its Empire State Mines in New York, positioning the project as a potential future source of material for batteries and industrial uses, but commercial production, customer qualification, and scale remain unproven.

Related: Where are The World’s Rare Earth Minerals Located?

Indeed, an EV battery requires far more graphite by weight than lithium, and global demand is forecasted to increase by several hundred percent in the coming decades. Graphite mining in the United States largely came to halt in the 1950s, with companies preferring to source it cheaply from China. China currently dominates the global graphite market, controlling over 90% of the processed supply.

We believe there is a real opportunity here,” said Titan Mining Corp. CEO Rita Adiani. “We have the ability to supply a significant portion of U.S. needs. And that’s largely because you can’t see China now as a reliable supply-chain partner.’’

Meanwhile, shares of Northern Graphite Corporation (OTCQB:NGPHF) have gained 61.0% YTD; Australian graphite miner, Syrah Resources Ltd. (OTCPK:SYAAF), have surged 98.1%; Canada’s Nouveau Monde Graphite (NYSE:NMG) gained 57.2% while South Korea’s POSCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PKX) gained 25.3%.

In July, the U.S. Commerce Department announced punitive tariffs on anode-grade graphite imported from China, targeting nearly $350 million in goods. That would bring effective tariffs on Chinese graphite to 160% on the notion that it’s being sold in the U.S. below fair market value. And it gets worse than that for some Chinese producers: China’s Huzhou Kaijin New Energy Technology and Shanghai Shaosheng Knitted Sweat, specifically, will face even higher duties exceeding 700%. The tariffs stem from a petition filed in 2024 by the American Active Anode Material Producers for alleged violations of anti-dumping regulations, and the impact on the American EV battery supply chain will likely be significant.

The United States imported ~180,000 metric tons of graphite in 2023, with two-thirds coming from China. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. graphite supply chain remains highly vulnerable to supply disruptions, with the energy agency calling for urgent diversification efforts. The IEA has projected that  graphite will remain the most widely used anode material in lithium-ion batteries over the next five years, with silicon expected to gradually gain ground after 2030. The tariffs on graphite are expected to escalate tensions between the two countries.

The cost implications of the tariffs will also be significant.

According to Sam Adham, Head of Battery Materials at CRU Group, battery costs could increase by roughly $7/kWh once the tariffs take effect, effectively cutting ~20% of tax credits under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). “I think this is going to change behaviors and sourcing strategies of battery manufacturers in the United States,” Michael O’Kronley, chief executive officer at Novonix, told Bloomberg. “The cost of graphite imported from China is going to go up. This ruling essentially is going to accelerate some of those discussions we have with manufacturers.”

That’s the reason why major EV players such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Panasonic have lobbied hard against the tariffs, citing an insufficient domestic supply chain to meet their quality and volume needs.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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