Insights from Johnny Khalil, Tickmill

JAKARTA – The Director of Tickmill’s Trading & Liquidity Group answers various questions while debunking the most common myths about trading in this exclusive interview.

Since ancient times, investors have always tried to minimize losses while increasing exposure to the market with high returns. In times of turmoil, this effort becomes more complex because investors tend to stay away from risky assets such as stocks and switch to safe haven assets such as gold.

In October 2025, the price of gold for the first time broke through the $4,000 mark. Historically, sharp spikes in gold prices are often considered a signal of impending economic turmoil. Then comes the big question: Should we be prepared for a recession? If so, is gold a better choice than bonds or cash? To answer these questions and at the same time clarify various myths circulating among online traders, we invite Johnny Khalil, Director of Trading & Liquidity Group at Tickmill.

Departing from statistics and price projections, the conversation quickly turned to Tickmill and how a broker with a long reputation in the CFD trading arena is able to consistently meet, even exceed, trader expectations.

First of all, Johnny, welcome and thank you for joining us. Calling the current macroeconomic conditions “interesting” feels like it’s too much of an understatement. I, like our readers, am curious how you describe the current situation. Are we heading for a new recession? Why is gold still holding at high levels?

Thank you for inviting me. There is a long answer and there is a short answer to this question. The price of gold has indeed corrected from a higher level, but until now it is still trading above 4,220 US dollars, and there are several factors that can explain it. First, the war that is still going on in Ukraine, coupled with the tendency of central banks to switch from the US dollar as a reserve asset to gold, has also supported the price of gold recently. Throughout 2025 alone, central banks have accumulated more than 1,000 tons of gold. Not to mention massive institutional participation. The total assets under management (AUM) of global gold ETFs reached a fantastic figure, namely 445 billion US dollars, with almost half of it coming from funds listed in the United States. Then, what is the short answer?

No, I think we are not heading for a recession, at least not in the near future, although concerns continue to emerge. This is all part of a cycle. The market did calm down for a while due to weaker employment data and easing expectations of a rate cut in December. However, after the discourse on rate cuts strengthened again, market activity also increased again. The S&P 500 index at the end of November rose slightly by 0.25 percent. This sentiment also spread to other markets, including gold, which cautiously resumed its upward trend.

In your opinion, can the gold price break through 5,000 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2026?

(Smiling) Well, it depends. If the economic conditions are supportive, yes, it is not impossible that the gold price will reach the threshold of 5,000 US dollars. Whether it will happen in the second half of 2026 or after, it still has to be seen how it develops. There are many factors to consider. If you look at the last fifteen years, the movement of the gold price, up, down, or stagnant, occurs in cycles that generally range from ten to sixteen years.

Thomas Andrieu, author of the influential book on gold and its cycles entitled L’or et l’argent, as well as a number of other publications on the economy and the gold market cycle, has been theorizing the gold price cycle for sixteen years. In 2023, he stated that this sixteen-year cycle may have been in place for more than half a century. An investment of 1 US dollar at the beginning of the cycle, at its peak, about eleven to twelve years later, could be worth 5.2 US dollars. For comparison, at the end of the bearish phase, the same 1 US dollar investment, on average, is only worth about 2.7 US dollars when the downtrend reaches its lowest point.

Throughout history, there have been two major periods of significant gold price increases: namely, 1971-1981 (the decade that marked the collapse of the gold standard), and 2001-2011. Conversely, periods of stagnation and decline occurred in the period of 1981-2001 and 2011-2016. Economic conditions are always different, but the rhythm of the magnitude is relatively easy to recognize. Based on this theory, the dynamics that color the gold market in the last three years, with corrections and retracements between price spikes, is a new bullish cycle that began in November 2022.

In short, this journey is likely still long. However, at this time nothing can be interpreted literally. We are indeed in a period of uncertainty. From the fluctuation of President Trump’s tariff policy, the great opportunity of a US interest rate cut in December, to high inflation in Europe. All of these factors affect currencies, bond markets, and gold. Nevertheless, these challenges also create opportunities. We at Tickmill see that traders who are able to effectively utilize diversification tend to achieve the best results.

You mentioned that there are opportunities for traders in this period. How does Tickmill support them in the current market conditions?

It’s no secret that Tickmill offers one of the lowest spreads for XAUUSD CFDs (Gold) – an average of 0.07 pips, compared to the industry standard which is in the range of 0.28 pips. This is a real advantage for all types of traders, both beginners and experienced ones. To give an idea of how attractive these conditions are for traders, in the third quarter of this year alone, we recorded as many as 13.9 million gold transactions executed through Tickmill.

Wow, that means the transaction volume is also very large.

This figure is equivalent to a notional volume of 342 billion US dollars, making gold the most traded CFD instrument at Tickmill throughout the third quarter. This is not an exaggerated promotion of Tickmill, but a real reflection of our clients’ trading preferences, as well as a broader picture of the current dynamics of the financial market.

Those numbers are quite impressive. After “opening the Pandora’s box”, I became curious. Actually, how much account balance does a trader need to start trading gold at Tickmill?

It’s less likely than many people think. Tickmill is not an exclusive broker; we are a broker for all walks of life. With a capital starting from 100 US dollars, anyone can trade gold CFDs and other instruments, with the same level of service. Most importantly, trading CFDs means trading the difference between the bid and ask prices of the underlying asset, without having to own it directly. This allows traders to gain opportunities, both when prices rise and fall. This two-way exposure is a powerful diversification tool, especially in a market full of uncertainty. Of course, risk management remains crucial. I always encourage traders to use take-profit orders, stop-loss orders, and follow our blog to get the latest financial news and market commentary.

Interesting explanation. In your opinion, what keeps traders coming back to Tickmill?

Consistency. Traders appreciate service providers that offer fair and transparent pricing, as well as execution speed that is almost without room for slippage. On average, we execute transactions in less than 0.20 seconds. Beyond that, we also provide a variety of advanced trading tools, educational materials, and access to more than 600 CFDs that include Forex, Stocks, Indices, and Commodities, among many other reference assets. I invite readers to visit our website and see firsthand what Tickmill has to offer.

Of course. Finally, are there any myths that should not be mistaken for facts by traders?

Good question. The first myth is the assumption that gold, as a safe haven asset, is a “cure-all”, including volatility. That’s wrong. Although gold is often able to survive more stably than cash or stocks, gold can also surprise. In 2008, when the Lehman Brothers bank collapsed, investors flocked to liquidate their gold holdings to get cash, not buy gold. This triggered a sudden drop in gold prices, before finally rising again in 2011. In extreme conditions such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, gold plays a role more as a liquidity hedge than a pure safe haven.

The second myth is the assumption that cash is always a safe source of wealth. This is also wrong, because cash is heavily influenced by monetary policy and inflationary pressures. The period of low interest rates accompanied by high inflation shows how quickly the purchasing power of cash can be eroded. Even when savings generate interest, inflation often erodes its real return.

The third myth that is often misinterpreted as a fact is the assumption that bonds are always better than gold. The reality is not that simple. Both gold and government bonds offer protection as a safe haven asset. The difference lies in liquidity, price, and most importantly, the investor’s goal when choosing one, or combining the two. In general, gold is considered more liquid than bonds.

On the other hand, bonds, including British government bonds (gilt), provide fixed returns periodically if held until maturity. However, I strongly advise traders not to accept financial market information just like that without a critical attitude. Each asset or instrument has different advantages, potential returns, and risk levels. A fact-based approach and clear goal setting can help traders face even the most volatile market, while avoiding the pitfalls of market myths.

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