North American Morning Briefing : Stock Futures Fall as Last Week of 2025 Begins
OPENING CALL
Stock futures edged down while the rally in precious metals took a pause on Monday as another holiday-shortened week began.
This week’s economic highlight is Tuesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting as investors look for clues on what the policymakers said about the year ahead.
A weak labor market suggests interest rates will be reduced further, but investors will be mindful of recent stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP data.
Other data releases this week include November pending home sales on Monday; October’s S&P Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday; and last week’s initial jobless claims on Wednesday.
Investors have been calm despite concerns about a less independent, more divided central bank next year , as Trump has signaled that he is closing in on a pick to be the next Fed chair.
Wall Street heads into the final trading days of 2025 sitting on double-digit annual gains for the major indexes. Investors are hoping a “Santa Claus rally” helps propel the S&P 500 to a 20% or more annual gain, a long-term rally that has occurred only once before, in 1995.
U.S. stock and bond markets will wrap up the year on Wednesday, then close on Thursday in observance of New Year’s Day. There are no major earnings reports this week.
Stocks to Watch
Coupang rose 3% premarket, on track to rally for a second consecutive session. The customer information leaked in a massive cybersecurity breach has been deleted by the suspect, according to media reports.
Disney: Walt Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” held onto the No. 1 spot in the domestic box office for a second weekend.
Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper: Shares of the mining companies declined premarket after metals futures retreated from last week’s record highs.
Watch For:
Pending Home Sales for November; Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for December; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (delayed from Dec. 24 due to federal holiday)
Today’s Top Headlines/Must Reads:
– Be Prepared to Keep Paying More for Electricity
-Sam’s Club Is Beating Costco at Its Own Game-in China
-Why a $500 Steak Dinner Only Yields a $25 Profit
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar traded steady against a basket of currencies in the absence of fresh catalysts in quiet holiday-thinned trade .
The greenback continues to face a challenging backdrop in 2026 following this year’s sharp depreciation, Charles Stanley said.
Sterling fell as its recent recovery lost steam . A better-than-feared U.K. budget in November prompted investors to trim earlier bets against sterling, supporting the currency’s recent recovery.
Bonds:
Treasury yields fell in quiet trade as the end of the year approaches.
Energy:
Oil rose as geopolitical tensions continued. U.S. talks with Ukraine on ending the war with Russia haven’t delivered an agreement. Meanwhile, oil is being supported by heightening tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.
Metals:
Gold futures fell slightly below $4,500 a troy ounce in early morning trade. Prices were likely to continue being elevated by safe-haven demand as intensifying geopolitical tensions continue, and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy, Sky Links Capital Group said.
Gold declined as investors locked in profits after a very strong run, Interactive Investor said.
Silver
Silver futures fell from record highs. The metal soared to a new record high of $82.67 earlier in the day, having traded around $30 in early January. It has been supported by demand from jewelers, data-center developers and solar-panel factories .
Copper
Copper prices continued to climb. The metal was trading at highs as supply disruptions continue and traders bet on longer-term demand driven by electrification and artificial-intelligence infrastructure.
Prices have risen beyond what many expected, according to Nanhua Futures.
Iron
Iron ore prices were higher in early trading on expectations for stronger demand. Improved profitability at Chinese steel mills was driving hopes for a recovery in iron ore production, Nanhua Futures said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
How an Office Romance Sparked an Overhaul at Nestlé
An office romance at Nestlé cost the chief executive his job. Now it’s giving way to an overhaul at the food-and-drink maker under new boss Philipp Navratil.
The Nescafé and Purina maker fired Laurent Freixe in September after an investigation found an undisclosed relationship broke its code of conduct. Tensions from the affair had distracted Nestlé’s upper management for much of Freixe’s 12 months in charge, according to people familiar with the matter, and tore a chunk out of its top ranks.
Sam’s Club Is Beating Costco at Its Own Game-in China
SHENZHEN, China-The scene would be familiar to anyone who has visited a Costco in a well-off American suburb. Children sit in wide shopping carts, pushed by parents wandering through the high-ceilinged aisles in search of deals on eggs, bread and rib-eye steak. Customers line up for samples of crackers and cakes.
But this isn’t America-it is one of China’s biggest cities. And the warehouse-club company bringing in affluent shoppers isn’t Costco. It is Walmart-owned Sam’s Club.
Boeing’s $724 Million Radar Plane Lives On, Despite Pentagon Efforts to Kill It
The U.S. Air Force’s new Wedgetail radar plane is designed to scan for threats hundreds of miles away, stay airborne for long stretches and act as a mobile battle station for dozens of fighters at once.
The aircraft is also behind schedule. Its cost has ballooned. Some military officials have said newer technologies could do much of the same job within the next decade.
Berkshire’s Buffett Is Stepping Down. Why Little Will Change and Why That’s OK.
The much-anticipated CEO succession at Berkshire Hathaway is set to take place at year-end, but it doesn’t look like much will change, at least initially. That may be just fine with many investors.
Warren Buffett, 95, will step aside after 60 years at the helm in favor of Greg Abel, 63. The veteran Berkshire executive now heads the company’s vast non-insurance businesses.
Bank of Japan’s Meeting Summary Points to Further Rate Increases
The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from its latest policy meeting pointed to further rate increases down the road.
At the conclusion of the meeting held from Dec. 18-19, the Japanese central bank raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, from 0.5%.
Home Sales, Fed Meeting Minutes, and Manufacturing Data to Usher in the New Year
Wall Street heads into the final trading days of 2025 sitting on double-digit annual gains for the major indexes.
U.S. stock and bond markets will wrap up the year on Wednesday, then close on Thursday in observance of New Year’s Day.
Companies Are Outlining Plans for 2026. Hiring Isn’t One of Them.
The corporate playbook for next year? Don’t hire.
Companies are looking to stay lean into 2026 while relying on technology to take on more tasks. Forecasters at jobs site Indeed expect relatively minimal hiring growth in 2026 and e-commerce platform Shopify and Chime Financial are already vowing to keep the size of their employee bases roughly flat. At a gathering of CEOs in Midtown Manhattan this month organized by the Yale School of Management, 66% of leaders surveyed said they planned to either fire workers or maintain the size of their existing teams next year. Only a third indicated they planned to hire.
Chinese Military Drills Send ‘Stern Warning’ After U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan
TAIPEI-China launched major military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan Monday in what it called a “stern warning” against outside interference in Chinese affairs, as tensions grow with the U.S. and Japan over the security of the island.
The drills follow the Trump administration’s mid-December approval of one of the largest packages of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The approvals, valued at over $11 billion, led Beijing to impose sanctions on Friday targeting 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives.
Trump Says Talks to End Ukraine War Yield Progress Though Hurdles Remain
PALM BEACH, Fla.-Talks to end the Ukraine war on Sunday spurred fresh optimism from President Trump yet no clear signs that the two sides reached a breakthrough as Russia continues to push for land gains and reject a cease-fire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump met Sunday at Mar-a-Lago to go over a 20-point draft that has been revised by Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators in recent weeks in the latest attempt to end the nearly four-year war. That came after Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky hopes Trump will apply more pressure on Putin to reach a deal.
The Man Who Teaches Pottery Out of a Bomb Shelter
At least three times a week, Oleksandr Ryabov climbs into a bomb shelter in the southern Ukrainian city of Bashtanka and waits for his students to arrive.
They file in and out throughout the day, a diverse group that includes a banker, an engineer, a retired boat captain and children. Many of them are displaced from nearby cities occupied or ravaged by Russian forces.
Families, Neighbors Informed on Each Other in Assad’s Syria, With Deadly Consequences
DAMASCUS-The family of Abdu Kharouf, a moderate Muslim preacher in a dirt-poor section of Damascus, had been haunted for half a decade by questions of how exactly he ended up in a prison run by Syria’s feared intelligence services, where he was interrogated and died.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
12-29-25 0612ET
