Orla Mining (TSX:OLA) Is Down 14.2% After Camino Rojo Expansion Approval And 2026 Outlook Update

• Orla Mining Ltd. recently reported audited 2025 results showing quarterly gold production of 95,405 ounces, full-year output of 300,620 ounces, and sales of US$1,057.88 million alongside new 2026 production guidance.
• At the same time, the company secured full environmental approval for expanded open-pit mining and underground exploration at Camino Rojo in Mexico, clearing a regulatory hurdle that could reshape its long-term mine plan.
• We’ll now examine how Camino Rojo’s newly approved underground exploration decline could influence Orla Mining’s earlier investment narrative and risk profile.

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Orla Mining Investment Narrative Recap

To own Orla Mining today, you need to believe in its ability to turn a growing North American gold platform into durable cash generation, while managing permitting and operating complexity at Camino Rojo and Musselwhite. The latest audited 2025 results and 2026 production guidance support the near term production story, but the key short term catalyst now is execution on Camino Rojo’s expanded pit and underground decline, with geotechnical and cost control remaining the biggest swing risks.

The environmental impact assessment approval for Camino Rojo is the announcement that really ties this together. It clears a core regulatory risk highlighted in earlier narratives and allows Orla to fully mine the oxide open pit while starting the underground exploration decline. For investors watching catalysts, that permit progress sits alongside 2026 guidance and recent free cash flow as the main pieces that could reshape views on both upside potential and operational risk.

Yet investors should also be aware that regulatory approvals can shift project economics if conditions tighten or pit design has to change…

Read the full narrative on Orla Mining (it’s free!)

Orla Mining’s narrative projects $1.4 billion revenue and $721.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 31.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $696 million earnings increase from $25.6 million today.

Uncover how Orla Mining’s forecasts yield a CA$31.86 fair value, a 65% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts, who were once penciling in revenue of about US$1.8 billion and earnings near US$960 million, lean heavily on rapid Camino Rojo and Musselwhite expansion, which is a much rosier view than consensus and could look very different once this new permitting and production data is fully reflected.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Orla Mining – why the stock might be worth just CA$28.22!

The Verdict Is Yours

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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