Bond Market

Stocks rattled by geopolitical tensions as Trump heads to Davos; bonds remain fragile

  • ‘Sell America’ fears hurt world stocks
  • Bond market regains some stability, dollar dips
  • All eyes on Trump’s WEF speech, Greenland threats
  • Trump lands in Zurich, heads to Davos

SYDNEY/LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) – Global shares fell for a fourth day on Wednesday and some measures of market stress remained high after a rout in global bonds and U.S. threats to acquire Greenland kept investors on edge ahead of President Donald Trump’s Davos speech.

Fears of foreign selling of U.S. assets – the so-called “Sell America” trade that emerged after last year’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in April – gripped markets as Wall Street tumbled more than 2% overnight and the U.S. dollar suffered its biggest fall in over a month.

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That sent investors into safe-havens like gold , which rose as much as 2.6% to a new record of $4,887 an ounce, and like the Swiss franc .

“The ‘sell America’ trade was the driving force behind major market moves overnight, as investors looked to reduce exposure to the U.S., seen by many as an unreliable partner pursuing self-defeating policies,” said Mantas Vanagas, a senior economist at Westpac.

Trump has doubled down on his rhetoric over Greenland, saying there was “no going back” on his goal to control the island, refusing to rule out taking it by force. Crucially for markets, his threat of tariffs on Europe has also rekindled fears of a global trade war.

The European Union will convene an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the matter, with the long-standing U.S.-EU alliance at risk.

All eyes are now on the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Trump is due to deliver a speech later in the day that could either calm or inflame tensions with Europe.

MSCI’s All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab was down 0.16%, heading for a fourth daily drop, as was Europe’s STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab, down 0.7%. The STOXX is laden with export-focussed stocks, such as defence, pharma and tech, that have come under pressure as the risks of additional U.S. tariffs have increased.
The VIX index (.VIX), opens new tab, which measures demand for protection against big swings in the S&P 500, traded above 20 for a second day, just below Tuesday’s two-month highs. The index is often used as a proxy for investor nervousness and for many, 20 is the point above which market volatility can suddenly explode.

Futures on the S&P 500 were down 0.12%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.3%, having reversed course earlier in the day.

“The key question is whether dip buyers step in to support early weakness, or whether traders see developments that justify taking risk down further,” Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston said.

BONDS ATTEMPT RECOVERY

The global bond market was still reeling from a brutal selloff, having been caught up in a perfect storm of worries over exposure to U.S. assets and a surge in Japanese government borrowing costs.

At the epicentre were long-dated Japanese sovereign bonds, which endured their most aggressive selloff in nearly 25 years on Tuesday, as fears grew over increased government spending under Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields neared the 5% threshold for the first time since September, while German government bond yields also rose sharply .

By Wednesday, Japanese bond prices rallied as buyers returned, almost entirely reversing the previous day’s rise in yields. A similar dynamic played out across U.S. Treasuries, where 30-year bond yields were steady at 4.918%.

In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s performance against that of six others, retreated for a third day, dipping 0.1%.

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1733, adding to Tuesday’s 0.7% gain, while the Swiss franc firmed, leaving the dollar down 0.1% at 0.7891 francs.

The yen was a touch stronger at 157.77 per dollar ahead of a Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday. No rate hike is expected this time though policymakers could signal an increase may be coming as soon as April.

Oil prices were steady, as pressure from geopolitical tensions and an expected build-up in U.S. crude inventories was offset by a temporary halt in output at two large fields in Kazakhstan. Brent crude futures were unchanged on the day at $64.91 a barrel.

Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Elaine Hardcastle and Chizu Nomiyama

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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