Walmart expected to report an almost 11% gain in Q4 earnings
Walmart reports its fourth-quarter earnings and fiscal 2026 financial results Thursday (Feb. 19) before the market opens, and the consensus estimate is earnings per share of 73 cents for the quarter ending Jan. 31. That would be a gain of 10.6% over a year ago, after one-time adjustments.
Revenue is forecast at $189.99 billion, rising 5.2% from the same period last year.
Analysts expect net sales for Walmart U.S. to be $129.01 billion, which would be up 4.46% from the $123.5 billion reported a year ago. U.S. same-store sales are expected to rise 4.3%, excluding fuel, below comp sales gains of 4.6% in the year-ago period.
Walmart’s international business is expected to report revenue of $35.61 billion, up 10.6% from a year ago. Within the international division, analysts expect revenue growth to come primarily from Mexico, India and Sam’s Club in China.
Sam’s Club within the U.S is expected to report revenue of $25.37 billion, up 9.8% from $23.1 billion a year ago. Comp sales are forecast at 4.1% growth, excluding fuel, less than 7.1% reported in the fourth-quarter of fiscal 2025.
UBS veteran retail analyst Michael Lasser suggests Walmart is maintaining its dominance in physical retail while successfully navigating a complex macroeconomic environment characterized by shifting consumer habits and tariff-induced trade volatility.
“The market is bracing for a report that could redefine the retail landscape for the remainder of the decade, as Walmart’s operational efficiencies and digital expansion appear to be firing on all cylinders,” Lasser noted.
He is among those who expect the retailer to beat the consensus estimate and said his optimism is rooted in steady gains in late 2025 where Walmart used its massive logistics network to mitigate supply chain bottlenecks that hit smaller competitors.
“UBS expects Walmart to outpace revenue growth – a clear sign of a flywheel effect where digital advertising and marketplace fees are beginning to bolster traditional retail margins,” he added.
Lasser said former CEO Doug McMillon’s leadership and investment in automated distribution centers and a robust third-party marketplace are now yielding tangible bottom-line results that much of the market had previously undervalued. He expects Walmart will be a winner in the ongoing retail arms race as a double-threat that can compete with Amazon on digital convenience while competing in physical stores against Costco, Target, and other rivals. The UBS note also points to Walmart’s scale, which allows it to absorb price pressures better than its smaller peers.
Lasser expects Walmart’s digital e-commerce business to grow by at least 20% in the quarter, noting that it’s not just a seasonal spike, but a fundamental shift in how the company interacts with 240 million customers each week. He said Walmart’s omnichannel dominance has blurred the lines between physical browsing and digital fulfillment.
He said Walmart is not immune to tariff impacts with China, but will be able to use its diversified global sourcing and massive volume to negotiate better terms with suppliers than any of its competitors.
“Strategically, Walmart may need to accelerate its pivot toward higher-margin services, such as health and wellness and financial services, to offset any potential drag from the 2026 tariff cycle,” he said. “The challenge will be maintaining price leadership while protecting the bottom line from increased import costs.”
For the fiscal year, Lasser predicts Walmart to earn between $2.85 and $3 per share.
Walmart moved its stock listing to the NASDAQ from the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 9 in hopes of the company being viewed more as a tech company in addition to its retail business. Walmart recently crossed $1 trillion in market value, the first retailer to do so. Since the move to NASDAQ, Walmart shares (NASDAQ: WMT) have increased in value by 17.4%. Shares opened Tuesday at $133.11. In the past 52 weeks the share price has ranged between $134.89 and $79.81.
