What’s at stake for UK in May’s local elections: six key questions | Local elections

1. What elections are being held and where?

In Scotland, voters will select 129 members of the country’s parliament, via a mix of first-past-the-post constituency voting and proportional regional voting. In Wales, a revised proportional system will pick 96 members of an expanded Senedd.

In England, there are first-past-the-post votes for members of more than 130 councils of various types – metropolitan, unitary, county, district and 32 London boroughs – as well as for six mayors. Some authorities are re-electing all councillors, some a third of them.

2. So who’s going to win?

The obvious answer is that with the elections still six weeks away, plus the vagaries of electoral systems and polling, we don’t know. But there are a series of broad themes appearing.

In Scotland, what has been billed as a battle between the SNP and Reform UK has seen the SNP keep a lead, with a decent chance of winning an overall majority. For Wales, Reform are seen as level with or just behind Plaid Cymru in the polls.

Across England, the councils are so varied that the picture is much more mixed, but Reform are predicted to win heavily, especially in the north of England, while the Greens could take a large number of councillors, with some inner London councils seen as fertile ground for Zack Polanski’s party.

3. What of the traditional big two?

For both Labour and the Conservatives, it is a case of damage limitation. Labour are resigned to losing control of Wales for the first time since devolution, and will most likely lose ground in Scotland, if less dramatically. The situation for Keir Starmer’s party across English councils could be particularly grim, shedding seats to both Reform and the Greens.

While there is less focus on the Conservatives, it is likely to be a tricky election for Kemi Badenoch. As well as yet more council losses, in Scotland and Wales the party is defending seats it last won during the Boris Johnson “vaccine bounce” of spring 2021, and their support is forecast to more than halve in both.

4. What could the political repercussions be?

Major Labour losses could see internal opponents of Starmer finally break ranks and challenge him as prime minister. Most Labour MPs believe this is very possible, if not inevitable, particularly if the UK is still struggling with the impacts of the US-led war against Iran.

And while Badenoch is seen as fairly secure, with her MPs mainly believing she has improved in the job, May’s elections are likely to illustrate how the Conservatives are still struggling in the polls and on course to be largely replaced by Reform, which could focus some minds in her party.

The vote could also see Scotland and Wales governed by nationalists, with Northern Ireland potentially following if Sinn Féin win the Northern Ireland assembly elections in 2027. This would be a historic first for the UK and a challenge to its status as a union of four nations.

5. What else is worth keeping an eye on?

One potentially significant indicator for the next general election is whether the rise of Reform sharpens voters’ minds when it comes to tactical voting – in particular whether those vehemently opposed to Nigel Farage’s party club together to support whoever is seen as most likely to defeat them. With the lower stakes of council elections, tactical voting tends to be less of a factor, but parties will be looking out for this.

It will also be notable to see how the Greens perform, particularly beyond urban areas. If they do well, will it come at a cost to the Liberal Democrats, who have previously ruled out a leftwing alliance, or will they be able to make big gains, too?

6. And which results will be worth staying up for?

Even if you’re an elections geek, it’s probably not worth pulling an all-nighter. Hardly any votes are being tallied on Thursday night, with the bulk of counts taking place on Friday, and some going on into Saturday. Beware also seeking to divine trends and lessons soon after the polls close. Only time will tell.