Wheat Futures Drops as Profit-Taking Grips Grains – Daily Grain Highlights
By Kirk Maltais
-Wheat for July delivery fell 1.9%, to $6.07 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, leading the way for the agricultural complex to pare war-related risk premium.
-Corn for July delivery fell 0.7%, to $4.76 1/2 a bushel.
-Soybeans for July delivery fell 0.6%, to $11.75 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Get the Bag: CBOT grain futures are down, with some traders opting to lock in the profits from a volatile week stemming from the war in Iran, said the Hightower Report in a note. But risk premium remains a big factor moving grain futures, and traders are guarding for a potential surge Friday afternoon on some sort of war-related headline–or fear of a major event coming to pass over the weekend while markets are closed. “The path of least resistance looks higher,” says the firm in a note.
Tracking Oil: Movement in grains continues to hinge on how energy futures are moving throughout the day, with oil futures trading lower before surging late in the session. “Market focus remains on the Middle East and its effects on crude oil and other commodities, as spring planting approaches quickly in the U.S.,” said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Light crude is up 1.9%, and Brent crude rises 1.9%. Both were negative earlier Friday.
INSIGHT
The Bottom Line: Crop budgets, the calculations farmers make to determine how much money they may make–or lose–on the acres they plant, have turned positive since the war in Iran sent grain futures climbing. Farmers now look to be profitable if prices remain at current price levels, according to research from Purdue University. With a price of $4.70 a bushel for corn and $11.30 a bushel for soybeans, farmers rotating their acres with average-quality soil now look to make hundreds of dollars per acre: $253 an acre for corn, and $325 an acre for soybeans. However, Purdue warns in this report that assumptions for crop prices and input costs could be “significantly changed” since this data was compiled.
Seasonal Change: The NOAA’s outlook for next week shows that most of the country will be seeing above-average temperatures. Outside of near-normal to solidly below-average temperatures in the Great Lakes states and the northeast, the rest of the country will see varying degrees of above-average temperatures through April 2. This is seen as a pressure point for natural gas futures, but for grains warmer and drier conditions mean that farmers hitting their fields to begin spring planting have a nearly ideal situation to hit the ground running with. Planting typically begins in April in the Corn Belt, lasting through May into June.
AHEAD
–The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
–Smithfield Foods will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday
–The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-20-26 1502ET
