This New War Can Take This Gold Mining ETF to New Highs Again

• VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) — gained 95% in a year amid Iran conflict geopolitical tensions.

• Gold miners benefit from operational leverage when gold prices rise, but higher oil costs compress margins simultaneously.

• GDX concentration risk: three holdings represent nearly a third of the portfolio.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

A U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, active airstrikes alongside Israel since late February, and a fragile ceasefire that looks increasingly unstable: the 2026 Iran conflict has created exactly the kind of geopolitical environment that has historically sent gold mining equities surging. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) has gained roughly 95% over the past year, and the conditions driving that run are not letting up.

GDX is not a gold bullion fund. It holds equity stakes in gold mining companies, which means it behaves more like a leveraged bet on gold than a direct proxy for the metal. When gold prices rise, mining companies see their profit margins expand rapidly because their operating costs are largely fixed. That operational leverage is the return engine here, and it cuts both ways.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

The fund launched in May 2006 and now holds approximately $28.2 billion in net assets, with a net expense ratio of about 0.5% and a portfolio turnover rate of just 0.5. Its top three holdings, Newmont (NYSE:NEM) at 12%, Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM) at 10.8%, and Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) at 7.6%, together represent nearly a third of the portfolio. Geographic diversification is genuine: the fund spans North American majors, Australian mid-tiers, African producers, and Asian miners.

The portfolio blends business models. Royalty and streaming companies provide steadier cash flows with less operational exposure than pure miners. That mix gives GDX a slightly smoother ride than a pure-play mining basket, though it still carries substantially more volatility than physical gold.

U.S. military operations against Iran, including airstrikes since February 28 alongside Israel and a newly announced naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed Islamabad talks on April 12, have kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated across commodity markets. WTI crude has surged to around $95 per barrel, up from roughly $60 at the start of the year. Gold and energy tend to move together in conflict scenarios, and miners benefit from both sides of that trade: higher gold prices and an inflation narrative that keeps investors seeking hard asset exposure.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 year-end gold target to $5,400 per ounce, while Bank of America forecast gold reaching $6,000 by spring 2026. Global gold ETF inflows hit $19 billion in January 2026 alone. Those are structural tailwinds, not just momentum. A World Gold Council study cited by analysts concluded that “gold’s current strength is driven by unresolved structural risks,” not speculation, pointing to central banks actively diversifying away from dollar-denominated reserves as a durable demand driver.

Higher oil prices compress margins even as gold prices rise, which is a real constraint that GDX holders should not ignore.

1. Operational leverage amplifies losses too. GDX carries higher volatility than physical gold, and if the Iran conflict de-escalates faster than markets expect, gold could retrace sharply. Mining equities tend to fall harder than the metal itself in those reversals.

2. Concentration risk in a handful of names. With nearly a third of assets in three companies, corporate-specific events can move the whole fund in ways unrelated to gold prices.

3. Energy cost exposure. Mining is energy-intensive. At $91 per barrel, WTI is at its highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine peak, which eats directly into mining margins even when gold prices are rising.

For investors who believe geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains structurally elevated, GDX offers equity-style upside tied to gold prices. A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could cut this trade sharply and quickly, so the risk profile here is asymmetric in both directions.

Wall Street is pouring billions into AI, but most investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buy back in 2010 — before its 28,000% run — has just pinpointed 10 new AI companies he believes could deliver outsized returns from here. One dominates a $100 billion equipment market. Another is solving the single biggest bottleneck holding back AI data centers. A third is a pure-play on an optical networking market set to quadruple. Most investors haven’t heard of half these names. Get the free list of all 10 stocks here.