Bitcoin Tops $81,000, but Derivatives Stay Cool as 1% Futures Premium Questions Rally
- Bitcoin’s move above $81,000 was met with limited optimism in derivatives markets, with the annualized futures premium at 1%%.
- On-chain indicators pointed to softer retail demand, with daily network transfer volume down 54%% and transaction counts nearing their lowest level in five years.
- U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.16 billion in net inflows, supporting the market’s downside through steady institutional demand.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 for the first time in three months, but muted sentiment in derivatives markets is casting doubt on the staying power of the rally.
Cointelegraph reported on May 6 that Bitcoin has gained about 7% over the past week and moved above the $81,000 level. Even so, investors have remained cautious in futures and options markets. The annualized premium, or basis, for monthly futures was about 1%, far below the neutral range of 4% to 8%.
Options markets showed a similar pattern. Delta skew, which measures the balance in demand between put and call options, hovered near the neutral threshold of plus or minus 6% but remained slightly in bearish territory. That suggests investors are not especially worried about a sharp selloff, but they also lack strong conviction in further gains.
The macro backdrop is also weighing on sentiment. Brent crude has stayed near $110 a barrel, sustaining inflation concerns, while U.S. inflation expectations approached 2.5%, the highest level in a decade. Even so, broader appetite for risk assets has held up, with the Nasdaq 100 index touching a record high.
On-chain indicators have been comparatively weak. Glassnode data showed Bitcoin’s daily network transfer volume fell about 54% from three months earlier to roughly $4.1 billion, while transaction counts neared their lowest level in five years. That has been interpreted as a sign of slowing retail demand.
Institutional demand, by contrast, has remained firm. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted about $1.16 billion in net inflows from Friday through Monday, helping support the market on the downside.
With derivatives activity subdued and on-chain activity slowing at the same time, the current advance will need additional demand to sustain itself, the report said.
