Why Seagate (STX) Is Up 13.8% After Strong Earnings, AI Storage Demand and Board Changes

• In late April and early May 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings reported sharply higher quarterly and nine‑month earnings, issued fourth‑quarter revenue guidance of about US$3.45 billion, affirmed a US$0.74 per‑share dividend, continued share repurchases under its long‑running buyback, and announced that long‑serving Lead Independent Director Mike Cannon will retire from the Board in October 2026.
• These developments highlight how Seagate is pairing AI‑driven growth in data‑center storage with active capital returns and an upcoming refresh in board leadership.
• With Seagate now guiding to higher revenue while benefiting from AI‑driven mass‑capacity storage demand, we’ll assess how this reinforces its investment narrative.

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Seagate Technology Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Seagate today, you need to believe that AI data centers will keep favoring high capacity HDDs and that Seagate can turn that demand into durable cash generation. The key short term catalyst is execution on its AI driven data center roadmap, while the biggest current risk is intense competition from SSD and QLC NAND solutions. The latest earnings beat, higher Q4 revenue guidance and continued buybacks appear to support, rather than materially change, that setup.

The most relevant recent announcement is Seagate’s Q3 2026 report, showing higher quarterly and nine month earnings alongside Q4 revenue guidance of about US$3.45 billion. For me, that update matters because it ties the AI storage story directly to current financial performance, reinforcing the near term catalyst around data center demand while still leaving longer term questions about HDD pricing power and competitive pressures very much alive.

But while the AI tailwind looks powerful, investors should be aware that growing SSD competition and hyperscale customer bargaining power could still…

Read the full narrative on Seagate Technology Holdings (it’s free!)

Seagate Technology Holdings’ narrative projects $24.2 billion revenue and $10.7 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 30.0% yearly revenue growth and a $8.3 billion earnings increase from $2.4 billion today.

Uncover how Seagate Technology Holdings’ forecasts yield a $770.43 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming Seagate could reach about US$13.2 billion of revenue and US$2.7 billion of earnings by 2028, which is a much more bullish story than the consensus. When you set that against concerns about a faster shift toward flash based storage, and then layer on Seagate’s recent earnings surprise and AI driven guidance, you can see how your view of the stock might change a lot from here.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Seagate Technology Holdings – why the stock might be worth 34% less than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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