Is SSR Mining (TSX:SSRM) Still Attractive After Its 198% One Year Share Price Surge

• Wondering whether SSR Mining’s recent share price puts it on sale or already prices in the story? This article walks through what that current price could mean for you.
• With the stock last closing at $44.70 and returns of 14.3% over 7 days, 51.2% year to date and 197.8% over 1 year, SSR Mining has been through sharp moves that can change how investors think about both risk and potential.
• Recent coverage has focused on SSR Mining’s performance and corporate developments. This helps explain why the stock has attracted more attention alongside those strong recent returns, and how this mix of market reaction and company-specific news has set the stage for investors to reassess what a fair price might look like.
• Right now SSR Mining carries a valuation score of 6 out of 6. Next, this article will break down how traditional valuation approaches line up for the stock, then finish with a broader framework to understand what that score really implies over the long run.

SSR Mining delivered 197.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Metals and Mining industry.

Approach 1: SSR Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those back to today to arrive at an intrinsic value per share.

For SSR Mining, the latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $379.1 million. Analysts have provided free cash flow estimates for the next few years, and these feed into a longer ten year path, where projections for 2030 show free cash flow of about $903.1 million. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates the remaining years to complete this two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model.

Using these projections, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $100.16 per share. Compared with the recent share price of CA$44.70, this implies the stock is about 55.4% below that modelled value, which indicates that SSR Mining is trading at a marked discount on this cash flow view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests SSR Mining is undervalued by 55.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 7 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for SSR Mining.

Approach 2: SSR Mining Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like SSR Mining, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect what you pay for the stock with the earnings it currently generates. It gives you a quick sense of how many dollars investors are willing to pay today for each dollar of earnings.

What counts as a normal or fair P/E will usually reflect how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk can go with a lower P/E.

SSR Mining currently trades on a P/E of 12.08x, compared with an average of 16.67x for the wider Metals and Mining industry and a peer group average of 16.80x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 19.93x for SSR Mining, which is the P/E that would be expected after considering its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market value and key risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the industry, because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than treating all miners as if they were the same. With the current P/E of 12.08x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 19.93x, the stock appears to trade at a discount on this earnings based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your SSR Mining Narrative

Earlier there was mention that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives take the usual metrics like discounted cash flow or P/E and add your own story about SSR Mining by linking what you believe about its future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast, a Fair Value and then a clear comparison with today’s share price. All of this happens within the Simply Wall St Community page that is used by millions of investors, where Narratives refresh automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a cautious SSR Mining view anchored around a Fair Value of about CA$52.74, while another leans on a more upbeat Fair Value of about CA$62.51. This gives you a straightforward way to see which story you agree with and how that lines up with your own decision on whether the stock looks attractive or expensive at the current market price.

Do you think there’s more to the story for SSR Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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