LifeMD’s latest narrative update leaves its fair value estimate unchanged at $9.25 per share, even as slight tweaks to the discount rate and revenue growth assumptions acknowledge a bumpier near term path. Optimistic analysts argue that the core telehealth and pharmacy engine remains capable of reaccelerating once weight management competition and reimbursement pressures normalize, while skeptics see the same dynamics as a sign of rising execution risk and limited visibility. As these opposing views drive subtle but important shifts in the stock’s story, stay tuned to see how you can track the next turns in LifeMD’s evolving narrative.
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🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Several firms, including H.C. Wainwright, Lake Street, and BTIG, continue to rate LifeMD shares positively even after Q3 misses and guidance resets, signaling confidence that current headwinds are manageable rather than thesis breaking.
Lake Street and BTIG both cut targets sharply, to $8 from $14 and to $10 from $18 respectively. They still see upside from current levels as they highlight operational progress in the core telehealth platform and the potential for growth to reaccelerate once competitive pressure in weight management abates.
BTIG underscores LifeMD’s focus on regulatory and quality standards versus lower cost compounded GLP-1 rivals. The firm frames the company as a higher quality operator whose near term revenue lumpiness could set up for stronger, more durable growth in 2026 and beyond.
H.C. Wainwright’s trim to a $9 target from $13 reflects updated 2025 revenue guidance and a reset of projections, but the firm maintains a Buy rating, suggesting it still views the risk reward as attractive after the stock’s pullback.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Mizuho takes a more cautious stance, cutting its target to $6 from $8 and keeping a Neutral rating after Q3 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations. This indicates less conviction that the current dislocation will quickly reverse.
Across the group, lower targets from all four firms highlight that consensus is recalibrating valuation to reflect reduced growth visibility in virtual weight management. Competitive pressure from lower priced compounded GLP-1 offerings is weighing on near term execution and earnings power.
LifeMD issued updated guidance calling for Q4 revenue of $45M to $46M and full year 2025 revenue of $192M to $193M, implying roughly 24% growth vs. 2024, a signal that management still expects solid top line expansion despite recent volatility.
The company disclosed it will be unable to file its next Form 10 Q with the SEC by the required deadline, raising questions about internal reporting processes and adding a layer of uncertainty around near term financial visibility.
LifeMD expanded its collaboration with Novo Nordisk to offer Ozempic, a GLP 1 therapy for type 2 diabetes, at $499 per month for eligible patients through its virtual care platform and NovoCare Pharmacy, positioning the company to deepen its presence in metabolic and chronic care.
The affiliated pharmacy added advanced non sterile compounding capabilities for oral and topical medications, a move expected to support customized therapies, generate operational savings, and reduce dependence on third party providers across key categories including men’s and women’s health and dermatology.
Fair Value: Unchanged at $9.25 per share, indicating no adjustment to the intrinsic value estimate despite updated assumptions.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from approximately 8.26% to 8.30%, reflecting a modestly higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged, remaining around 1.28%, suggesting stable expectations for the top line trajectory in the current model.
Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at roughly 7.11%, indicating no material change in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Increased marginally from about 39.8x to 39.9x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.
Narratives are investor written stories that connect what a company is doing to what its numbers could look like in the future. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to link LifeMD’s strategy to explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, then to an assumed fair value, and finally to buy or sell decisions by comparing that fair value to the current price. As news, filings and earnings arrive, these Narratives update dynamically so your view stays in sync with the latest information.
Read the full LifeMD Narrative to see how one cohesive view ties the story, forecasts and fair value together:
Why expansion into new care domains, AI driven automation and insurance partnerships could support margin expansion and steadier growth.
How competitive pressure, refund rates and concentration in weight management and men’s health could derail the thesis.
What assumptions on 3 year revenue growth, margin uplift and a future P/E multiple must hold for a fair value above the current price.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
